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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
DeepVARMA: A Hybrid Deep Learning and VARMA Model for Che...
Xiang Li, Hu Yang · 2024-04-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Since the chemical industry index is one of the important indicators to measure the development of the chemical industry, forecasting it is critical for understanding the economic situation and trends of the industry. Taking the multivariable nonstationary series-synthetic material index as the main research object, this paper proposes a new prediction model: DeepVARMA, and its variants Deep-VARMA-re and DeepVARMA-en, which combine LSTM and VARMAX models. The new model firstly uses the deep learning model such as the LSTM remove the trends of the target time series and also learn the representation of endogenous variables, and then uses the VARMAX model to predict the detrended target time series with the embeddings of endogenous variables, and finally combines the trend learned by the LSTM and dependency learned by the VARMAX model to obtain the final predictive values. The experimental results show that (1) the new model achieves the best prediction accuracy by combining the LSTM encoding of the exogenous variables and the VARMAX model. (2) In multivariate non-stationary series prediction, DeepVARMA uses a phased processing strategy to show higher adaptability and accuracy compared to the traditional VARMA model as well as the machine learning models LSTM, RF and XGBoost. (3) Compared with smooth sequence prediction, the traditional VARMA and VARMAX models fluctuate more in predicting non-smooth sequences, while DeepVARMA shows more flexibility and robustness. This study provides more accurate tools and methods for future development and scientific decision-making in the chemical industry.