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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Importance sampling based active learning for parametric ...
Clement Gauchy, Cyril Feau, Josselin Garnier · 2021-09-09 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The key elements of seismic probabilistic risk assessment studies are the fragility curves which express the probabilities of failure of structures conditional to a seismic intensity measure. A multitude of procedures is currently available to estimate these curves. For modeling-based approaches which may involve complex and expensive numerical models, the main challenge is to optimize the calls to the numerical codes to reduce the estimation costs. Adaptive techniques can be used for this purpose, but in doing so, taking into account the uncertainties of the estimates (via confidence intervals or ellipsoids related to the size of the samples used) is an arduous task because the samples are no longer independent and possibly not identically distributed. The main contribution of this work is to deal with this question in a mathematical and rigorous way. To this end, we propose and implement an active learning methodology based on adaptive importance sampling for parametric estimations of fragility curves. We prove some theoretical properties (consistency and asymptotic normality) for the estimator of interest. Moreover, we give a convergence criterion in order to use asymptotic confidence ellipsoids. Finally, the performances of the methodology are evaluated on analytical and industrial test cases of increasing complexity.