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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Statistical Performance Guarantee for Subgroup Identifica...
Michael Lingzhi Li, Kosuke Imai · 2023-10-12 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Across a wide array of disciplines, many researchers use machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify a subgroup of individuals who are likely to benefit from a treatment the most (``exceptional responders'') or those who are harmed by it. A common approach to this subgroup identification problem consists of two steps. First, researchers estimate the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) using an ML algorithm. Next, they use the estimated CATE to select those individuals who are predicted to be most affected by the treatment, either positively or negatively. Unfortunately, CATE estimates are often biased and noisy. In addition, utilizing the same data to both identify a subgroup and estimate its group average treatment effect results in a multiple testing problem. To address these challenges, we develop uniform confidence bands for estimation of the group average treatment effect sorted by generic ML algorithm (GATES). Using these uniform confidence bands, researchers can identify, with a statistical guarantee, a subgroup whose GATES exceeds a certain effect size, regardless of how this effect size is chosen. The validity of the proposed methodology depends solely on randomization of treatment and random sampling of units. Importantly, our method does not require modeling assumptions and avoids a computationally intensive resampling procedure. A simulation study shows that the proposed uniform confidence bands are reasonably informative and have an appropriate empirical coverage even when the sample size is as small as 100. We analyze a clinical trial of late-stage prostate cancer and find a relatively large proportion of exceptional responders.