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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Expressive Mortality Models through Gaussian Process Kernels
Mike Ludkovski, Jimmy Risk · 2023-05-03 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We develop a flexible Gaussian Process (GP) framework for learning the covariance structure of Age- and Year-specific mortality surfaces. Utilizing the additive and multiplicative structure of GP kernels, we design a genetic programming algorithm to search for the most expressive kernel for a given population. Our compositional search builds off the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) paradigm to construct a covariance prior best matching the spatio-temporal dynamics of a mortality dataset. We apply the resulting genetic algorithm (GA) on synthetic case studies to validate the ability of the GA to recover APC structure, and on real-life national-level datasets from the Human Mortality Database. Our machine-learning based analysis provides novel insight into the presence/absence of Cohort effects in different populations, and into the relative smoothness of mortality surfaces along the Age and Year dimensions. Our modelling work is done with the PyTorch libraries in Python and provides an in-depth investigation of employing GA to aid in compositional kernel search for GP surrogates.