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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Epidemic-guided deep learning for spatiotemporal forecast...
Madhab Barman, Madhurima Panja, Nachiketa Mishra, Tanujit Chakra · 2025-02-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a formidable global health challenge, driven by complex spatiotemporal transmission dynamics and influenced by factors such as population mobility and behavioral changes. We propose an Epidemic-Guided Deep Learning (EGDL) approach that fuses mechanistic epidemiological principles with advanced deep learning techniques to enhance early warning systems and intervention strategies for TB outbreaks. Our framework is built upon a modified networked Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (MN-SIR) model augmented with a saturated incidence rate and graph Laplacian diffusion, capturing both long-term transmission dynamics and region-specific population mobility patterns. Compartmental model parameters are rigorously estimated using Bayesian inference via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. Theoretical analysis leveraging the comparison principle and Green's formula establishes global stability properties of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Building on these epidemiological insights, we design two forecasting architectures, EGDL-Parallel and EGDL-Series, that integrate the mechanistic outputs of the MN-SIR model within deep neural networks. This integration mitigates the overfitting risks commonly encountered in data-driven methods and filters out noise inherent in surveillance data, resulting in reliable forecasts of real-world epidemic trends. Experiments conducted on TB incidence data from 47 prefectures in Japan and 31 provinces in mainland China demonstrate that our approach delivers robust and accurate predictions across multiple time horizons (short to medium-term forecasts), supporting its generalizability across regions with different population dynamics.