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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian Models for Joint Selection of Features and Auto-...
Alokesh Manna, Sujit K. Ghosh · 2025-08-13 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on contemporaneous or past explanatory variables and persistent stochastic shocks, including financial modeling, hydrological forecasting, and meteorological applications requiring temporal dependency capture. Our methodology uses hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors to simultaneously select relevant covariates and lagged error terms. We propose an efficient two-stage MCMC algorithm separating sampling of variable inclusion indicators and model parameters to address high-dimensional computational challenges. Theoretical analysis establishes posterior selection consistency under mild conditions, even when candidate predictors grow exponentially with sample size, common in modern time series with many potential lagged variables. Through simulations and real applications (groundwater depth prediction, S&P 500 log returns modeling), we demonstrate substantial gains in variable selection accuracy and predictive performance. Compared to existing methods, our framework achieves lower MSPE, improved true model component identification, and greater robustness with autocorrelated noise, underscoring practical utility for model interpretation and forecasting in autoregressive settings.