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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
An analysis of deep neural networks for predicting trends...
Kouame Hermann Kouassi, Deshendran Moodley · 2020-09-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Recently, a hybrid Deep Neural Network (DNN) algorithm, TreNet was proposed for predicting trends in time series data. While TreNet was shown to have superior performance for trend prediction to other DNN and traditional ML approaches, the validation method used did not take into account the sequential nature of time series data sets and did not deal with model update. In this research we replicated the TreNet experiments on the same data sets using a walk-forward validation method and tested our optimal model over multiple independent runs to evaluate model stability. We compared the performance of the hybrid TreNet algorithm, on four data sets to vanilla DNN algorithms that take in point data, and also to traditional ML algorithms. We found that in general TreNet still performs better than the vanilla DNN models, but not on all data sets as reported in the original TreNet study. This study highlights the importance of using an appropriate validation method and evaluating model stability for evaluating and developing machine learning models for trend prediction in time series data.