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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Benchmarks and Custom Package for Energy Forecasting
Zhixian Wang, Qingsong Wen, Chaoli Zhang, Liang Sun, Leandro Von · 2023-07-14 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Energy (load, wind, photovoltaic) forecasting is significant in the power industry as it can provide a reference for subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, thus bringing huge economic benefits. However, there are many differences between energy forecasting and traditional time series forecasting. On the one hand, traditional time series mainly focus on capturing characteristics like trends and cycles. In contrast, the energy series is largely influenced by many external factors, such as meteorological and calendar variables. On the other hand, energy forecasting aims to minimize the cost of subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, rather than simply pursuing prediction accuracy. In addition, the scale of energy data can also significantly impact the predicted results. In this paper, we collected large-scale load datasets and released a new renewable energy dataset that contains both station-level and region-level renewable generation data with meteorological data. For load data, we also included load domain-specific feature engineering and provided a method to customize the loss function and link the forecasting error to requirements related to subsequent tasks (such as power grid dispatching costs), integrating it into our forecasting framework. Based on such a situation, we conducted extensive experiments with 21 forecasting methods in these energy datasets at different levels under 11 evaluation metrics, providing a comprehensive reference for researchers to compare different energy forecasting models.