惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
A
About on SuperTechFans
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
B
Blog RSS Feed
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
J
Java Code Geeks
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
B
Blog
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
L
LangChain Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
小众软件
小众软件
IT之家
IT之家
腾讯CDC
月光博客
月光博客
量子位
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
P
Proofpoint News Feed
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More

cs.SI updates on arXiv.org

Hiding in Plain Sight: Finding MAHA on Reddit Prism: Structural Symmetry Scanning via Duality-Constrained Laplacian Projection MV-Gate: Insider Threat Detection via Multi-View Behavioral Statistics and Semantic Modeling Algorithmic Cultivation: How Social Media Feeds Shape User Language Universal Dynamics of Punctuated Progress AI-Mediated Communication Can Steer Collective Opinion CitePrism: Human-in-the-Loop AI for Citation Auditing and Editorial Integrity Explainable Detection of Depression Status Shifts from User Digital Traces Can Visual Mamba Improve AI-Generated Image Detection? An In-Depth Investigation ScioMind: Cognitively Grounded Multi-Agent Social Simulation with Anchoring-Based Belief Dynamics and Dynamic Profiles Humanwashing -- It Should Leave You Feeling Dirty When Do LLMs Generate Realistic Social Networks? A Multi-Dimensional Study of Culture, Language, Scale, and Method Moltbook Moderation: Uncovering Hidden Intent Through Multi-Turn Dialogue Linking Extreme Discourse to Structural Polarization in Signed Interaction Networks Predicting Channel Closures in the Lightning Network with Machine Learning Latent Causal Void: Explicit Missing-Context Reconstruction for Misinformation Detection Predictive Maps of Multi-Agent Reasoning: A Successor-Representation Spectrum for LLM Communication Topologies Large Language Models for Causal Relations Extraction in Social Media: A Validation Framework for Disaster Intelligence When Can Digital Personas Reliably Approximate Human Survey Findings? RAwR: Role-Aware Rewiring via Approximate Equitable Partition GravityGraphSAGE: Link Prediction in Directed Attributed Graphs Structure-Centric Graph Foundation Model via Geometric Bases Attention-based graph neural networks: a survey When AI Meets Science: Research Diversity, Interdisciplinarity, Visibility, and Retractions across Disciplines in a Global Surge Scalable inference of spatial regions and temporal signatures from time series Can LLMs Emulate Human Belief Dynamics? Predicting Post Virality with Temporal Cross-Attention over Trend Signals H3: A Healthcare Three-Hop Index for Physician Referral Network Prediction Dynamic Graph with Similarity-Aware Attention Graph Neural Network for Recommender Systems Spectral Graph Sparsification Preserves Representation Geometry in Graph Neural Networks
Bitcoin Price Prediction: An ARIMA Approach
Amin Azari · 2019-04-04 · via cs.SI updates on arXiv.org

Bitcoin is considered the most valuable currency in the world. Besides being highly valuable, its value has also experienced a steep increase, from around 1 dollar in 2010 to around 18000 in 2017. Then, in recent years, it has attracted considerable attention in a diverse set of fields, including economics and computer science. The former mainly focuses on studying how it affects the market, determining reasons behinds its price fluctuations, and predicting its future prices. The latter mainly focuses on its vulnerabilities, scalability, and other techno-crypto-economic issues. Here, we aim at revealing the usefulness of traditional autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) model in predicting the future value of bitcoin by analyzing the price time series in a 3-years-long time period. On the one hand, our empirical studies reveal that this simple scheme is efficient in sub-periods in which the behavior of the time-series is almost unchanged, especially when it is used for short-term prediction, e.g. 1-day. On the other hand, when we try to train the ARIMA model to a 3-years-long period, during which the bitcoin price has experienced different behaviors, or when we try to use it for a long-term prediction, we observe that it introduces large prediction errors. Especially, the ARIMA model is unable to capture the sharp fluctuations in the price, e.g. the volatility at the end of 2017. Then, it calls for more features to be extracted and used along with the price for a more accurate prediction of the price. We have further investigated the bitcoin price prediction using an ARIMA model, trained over a large dataset, and a limited test window of the bitcoin price, with length $w$, as inputs. Our study sheds lights on the interaction of the prediction accuracy, choice of ($p,q,d$), and window size $w$.