To improve the efficiency of software maintenance, change prediction techniques have been proposed to predict frequently changing modules. Whereas existing techniques focus primarily on class-level prediction, method-level prediction allows for more direct identification of change locations. Method-level prediction can be useful, but it may also negatively affect prediction performance, leading to a trade-off. This makes it unclear which level of granularity users should select for their predictions. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of method-level change prediction compared with that of class-level prediction from three perspectives: direct comparison, method-level comparison, and maintenance effort-aware comparison. The results from 15 open source projects show that, although method-level prediction exhibited lower performance than class-level prediction in the direct comparison, method-level prediction outperformed class-level prediction when both were evaluated at method-level, leading to a median difference of 0.26 in accuracy. Furthermore, effort-aware comparison shows that method-level prediction performed significantly better when the acceptable maintenance effort is little.