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Exploring Statistical Change Point Detection Techniques f...
[Submitted on 16 Jun 2026] · 2026-06-18 · via cs.SE updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:Software performance regressions can have significant business consequences, making automated detection a critical component of modern continuous integration pipelines. At Mozilla, performance anomaly detection is handled by Perfherder, Mozilla's performance engineering management system that relies on a Student's T-test-based approach to flag regressions across hundreds of daily code changes. However, our preliminary analysis of one year of Mozilla performance data reveals that 12.5% of generated alert groups are false positives, while approximately 6.8% of them contain regressions missed by the automated system.
This paper presents an empirical study evaluating 25 change-point detection (CPD) methods and 15 ensemble approaches as alternatives to Mozilla's current method. We construct a ground-truth dataset of 174 performance time series manually annotated by eleven Mozilla performance engineers, representing one of the first practitioner-annotated CPD benchmarks for performance engineering. Our results show that while offline and hybrid CPD methods improve recall over Mozilla's method, they do so at a high cost to precision. Ensemble voting strategies alleviate this trade-off and offer more consistent performance, resulting in 11% improvement in the F1-score. We validate the experimental results through a practitioner survey and report on lessons learned from integrating the best methods into Mozilla's performance engineering system.

Submission history

From: Diego Elias Costa [view email]
[v1] Tue, 16 Jun 2026 18:25:08 UTC (1,945 KB)