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cs.RO updates on arXiv.org

FineCog-Nav: Integrating Fine-grained Cognitive Modules for Zero-shot Multimodal UAV Navigation DENALI: A Dataset Enabling Non-Line-of-Sight Spatial Reasoning with Low-Cost LiDARs SENSE: Stereo OpEN Vocabulary SEmantic Segmentation Continual Hand-Eye Calibration for Open-world Robotic Manipulation PLAF: Pixel-wise Language-Aligned Feature Extraction for Efficient 3D Scene Understanding GaussianFlow SLAM: Monocular Gaussian Splatting SLAM Guided by GaussianFlow GIST: Multimodal Knowledge Extraction and Spatial Grounding via Intelligent Semantic Topology $π_{0.7}$: a Steerable Generalist Robotic Foundation Model with Emergent Capabilities R3D: Revisiting 3D Policy Learning Vision-Based Safe Human-Robot Collaboration with Uncertainty Guarantees Benchmarking Classical Coverage Path Planning Heuristics on Irregular Hexagonal Grids for Maritime Coverage Scenarios NEAT-NC: NEAT guided Navigation Cells for Robot Path Planning HRDexDB: A Large-Scale Dataset of Dexterous Human and Robotic Hand Grasps ADAPT: Benchmarking Commonsense Planning under Unspecified Affordance Constraints An Intelligent Robotic and Bio-Digestor Framework for Smart Waste Management Efficient closed-form approaches for pose estimation using Sylvester forms World-Value-Action Model: Implicit Planning for Vision-Language-Action Systems A Nonasymptotic Theory of Gain-Dependent Error Dynamics in Behavior Cloning CooperDrive: Enhancing Driving Decisions Through Cooperative Perception SpaceMind: A Modular and Self-Evolving Embodied Vision-Language Agent Framework for Autonomous On-orbit Servicing HiVLA: A Visual-Grounded-Centric Hierarchical Embodied Manipulation System UMI-3D: Extending Universal Manipulation Interface from Vision-Limited to 3D Spatial Perception Towards Multi-Object-Tracking with Radar on a Fast Moving Vehicle: On the Potential of Processing Radar in the Frequency Domain Beyond Conservative Automated Driving in Multi-Agent Scenarios via Coupled Model Predictive Control and Deep Reinforcement Learning Failure Identification in Imitation Learning Via Statistical and Semantic Filtering A Dynamic-Growing Fuzzy-Neuro Controller, Application to a 3PSP Parallel Robot Vision-Language-Action Jump-Starting for Reinforcement Learning Robotic Agents A Mechanistic Analysis of Sim-and-Real Co-Training in Generative Robot Policies ESCAPE: Episodic Spatial Memory and Adaptive Execution Policy for Long-Horizon Mobile Manipulation Evolvable Embodied Agent for Robotic Manipulation via Long Short-Term Reflection and Optimization
Evidential Uncertainty Estimation for Multi-Modal Traject...
Sajad Marvi, Christoph Rist, Julian Schmidt, Julian Jordan, Abhi · 2025-03-07 · via cs.RO updates on arXiv.org

Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous driving, yet uncertainty in agent behavior and perception noise makes it inherently challenging. While multi-modal trajectory prediction models generate multiple plausible future paths with associated probabilities, effectively quantifying uncertainty remains an open problem. In this work, we propose a novel multi-modal trajectory prediction approach based on evidential deep learning that estimates both positional and mode probability uncertainty in real time. Our approach leverages a Normal Inverse Gamma distribution for positional uncertainty and a Dirichlet distribution for mode uncertainty. Unlike sampling-based methods, it infers both types of uncertainty in a single forward pass, significantly improving efficiency. Additionally, we experimented with uncertainty-driven importance sampling to improve training efficiency by prioritizing underrepresented high-uncertainty samples over redundant ones. We perform extensive evaluations of our method on the Argoverse 1 and Argoverse 2 datasets, demonstrating that it provides reliable uncertainty estimates while maintaining high trajectory prediction accuracy.