We present a distributed framework for predicting whether a planned reconfiguration step of a modular robot will mechanically overload the structure, causing it to break or lose stability under its own weight. The algorithm is executed by the modular robot itself and based on a distributed iterative solution of mechanical equilibrium equations derived from a simplified model of the robot. The model treats inter-modular connections as beams and assumes no-sliding contact between the modules and the ground. We also provide a procedure for simplified instability detection. The algorithm is verified in the Programmable Matter simulator VisibleSim, and in real-life experiments on the modular robotic system Blinky Blocks.