Vision-driven autonomous river following by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles is critical for applications such as rescue, surveillance, and environmental monitoring, particularly in dense riverine environments where GPS signals are unreliable. These safety-critical navigation tasks must satisfy hard safety constraints while optimizing performance. Moreover, the reward in river following is inherently history-dependent (non-Markovian) by which river segment has already been visited, making it challenging for standard safe Reinforcement Learning (SafeRL). To address these gaps, we propose three contributions. First, we introduce Marginal Gain Advantage Estimation, which refines the reward advantage function by using a sliding window baseline computed from historical episodic returns, aligning the advantage estimate with non-Markovian dynamics. Second, we develop a Semantic Dynamics Model based on patchified water semantic masks offering more interpretable and data-efficient short-term prediction of future observations compared to latent vision dynamics models. Third, we present the Constrained Actor Dynamics Estimator architecture, which integrates the actor, cost estimator, and SDM for cost advantage estimation to form a model-based SafeRL framework. Simulation results demonstrate that MGAE achieves faster convergence and superior performance over traditional critic-based methods like Generalized Advantage Estimation. SDM provides more accurate short-term state predictions that enable the cost estimator to better predict potential violations. Overall, CADE effectively integrates safety regulation into model-based RL, with the Lagrangian approach providing a "soft" balance between reward and safety during training, while the safety layer enhances inference by imposing a "hard" action overlay.