The performance of data intensive applications is often dominated by their input/output (I/O) operations but the I/O stack of systems is complex and severely depends on system specific settings and hardware components. This situation makes generic performance optimisation challenging and costly for developers as they would have to run their application on a large variety of systems to evaluate their improvements. Here, simulation frameworks can help reducing the experimental overhead but they typically handle the topic of I/O rather coarse-grained, which leads to significant inaccuracies in performance predictions. Here, we propose a more accurate model of the write performance of Linux-based systems that takes different I/O methods and levels (via system calls, library calls, direct or indirect, etc.), the page cache, background writing, and the I/O throttling capabilities of the Linux kernel into account. With our model, we reduce, for example, the relative prediction error compared to a standard I/O model included in SimGrid for a random I/O scenario from 67 % down to 10 % relative error against real measurements of the simulated workload. In other scenarios the differences are even more pronounced.