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We survey the scale of the problem with production data from Meta, ByteDance, Google and Alibaba, and reproduce an industry scaling projection -- attributed, and not our own measurement -- under which a fabric of more than ten million optical links sees an aggregate flap roughly every 48 seconds. The mitigations surveyed reduce the interval, often substantially, but each retains a period in which failure state is inferred rather than established.
We then examine Open Aethernet (OAE), whose distinctive move is asymmetric: a completed transaction yields positive, mutually held evidence, while absence of completion is not treated as identification of a failure but recorded as an explicit IN-DOUBT state, resolved by corroboration where the topology permits. We are explicit about what this does not claim. OAE does not eliminate uncertainty; it makes it first-class. It does not repair a hard partition; detection is not repair; its detector latency is uncharacterised; triangle coverage is assumed rather than proved; we report no OAE measurement; and we do not claim common knowledge in the epistemic-logic sense.
From: Paul Borrill [view email]
[v1]
Wed, 4 Mar 2026 05:12:40 UTC (21 KB)
[v2]
Wed, 9 Sep 2026 03:57:32 UTC (28 KB)
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