Datalog is a powerful yet elegant language that allows expressing recursive computation. Although Datalog evaluation has been extensively studied in the literature, so far, only loose upper bounds are known on how fast a Datalog program can be evaluated. In this work, we ask the following question: given a Datalog program over a naturally-ordered semiring $σ$, what is the tightest possible runtime? To this end, our main contribution is a general two-phase framework for analyzing the data complexity of Datalog over $σ$: first ground the program into an equivalent system of polynomial equations (i.e. grounding) and then find the least fixpoint of the grounding over $σ$. We present algorithms that use structure-aware query evaluation techniques to obtain the smallest possible groundings. Next, efficient algorithms for fixpoint evaluation are introduced over two classes of semirings: (1) finite-rank semirings and (2) absorptive semirings of total order. Combining both phases, we obtain state-of-the-art and new algorithmic results. Finally, we complement our results with a matching fine-grained lower bound.