We’ve reached that familiar point in Apple’s annual iPhone speculation cycle when conflicting reports insist an unreleased, unconfirmed product is both behind schedule and set to appear right on time.

As with Apple’s annual macOS system naming fable, this moment comes every year. One publication, sometimes Nikkei, might claim development is running late, while a second industry observer, usually well-connected analyst Mark Gurman, will rebut the claim. 

Apple, meanwhile, says nothing at all. How could it, when all the drama concerns a product it hasn’t even acknowledged exists? Instead, the company just sits back, quietly managing the coverage while occupying prime mental real estate without officially doing anything.

How the stories work

The details in these annual stories don’t matter much. At this stage, they usually involve technical or manufacturing process flaws related to a problem identified during the initial test manufacturing cycle, which Apple then manages to fix.

Once the device is introduced and reaches stores, Apple routinely sells through its initial product inventory rapidly. Shipping times slip, supply tightens, and sometimes weeks pass before availability stabilizes. Rarely, Apple will announce a product — but not actually ship it for a few more weeks. This is a pattern we sometimes see with the iPhone Pro models.

This year’s Big Story

This year’s Big Story concerns the mythical iPhone Fold. Nikkei reports last-minute manufacturing flaws and even speculates the device might not ship until 2027. Gurman rebuts the report, arguing Apple remains on track for its fall schedule for the still-unconfirmed product. “While supply could be limited initially, it’s also on track to go on sale at the same time — or soon after — the Pro models. Nikkei report is off base,” he wrote.

The rumor clearly rattled markets. Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Woodring weighed in with his own reporting, telling clients in a note seen by Computerworld that while early testing has identified a small engineering issue concerning the Samsung-made hinge, he hasn’t picked up news of delays. He cites an iPhone component supplier who said they had “not seen any order adjustment for the Foldable iPhone.”

Business as usual

None of this is unusual. Apple ran into similar challenges with iPhone X and iPhone 15. Picking up problems at this stage in the manufacturing process is precisely why Apple engages in test manufacturing runs. The idea is that if problems are found, there is time to get them fixed. Woodring expects Apple will do so, echoing Gurman’s view that a September announcement remains on track.

Of course, what makes all the iPhone Fold flip-flops so amusing is that right now the product doesn’t officially exist. Apple has said nothing about it, and while we know it’s worked on a folding iPhone for over a decade, it has never, ever announced one. 

Even so, we already think we know what to expect. 

What we think we know

The IPhone Fold will, perhaps unsurprisingly, fold. It might be a little squarer than a standard iPhone and folds out to be slightly smaller than an iPod mini. You’ll be able to use it folded or unfolded, it will have high-quality cameras, use premium materials and the fold will be almost invisible when used. It will boast an Apple silicon processor, plenty of memory, and be as happy taking a FaceTime call as it will be when running on-device AI. 

• It will look excellent. 
• It will feel expensive. 
• Hordes of influencers will love it. 

And it will likely cost around $2,000.

That’s what we think we know, but Apple hasn’t ever promised a folding iPhone. What it does promise, however, is that if it ships such a device it will do so on Apple’s terms, not the industry’s self-created schedule. That’s just how Apple flips its phones. 

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