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Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs walks off the court after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves 139-109 in Game Six of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Target Center on May 15, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

The San Antonio Spurs enter Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder as 6.5-point underdogs, a surprising development given their dominance of the reigning NBA champions in the regular season.

The Spurs beat the Thunder in four of their five regular-season meetings, including the NBA Cup semifinal on Dec. 13, by an average margin of 11.8  points. In two home wins over OKC, the Spurs won by a dominant margin of 15.0points, while shooting 50.3% from the field and 38.5% from three.

Furthermore, reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a -10 on the floor in three losses against the Spurs — his worst plus/minus against any team this season.

Despite so many statistical indicators favoring the Spurs, oddsmakers seem to trust OKC’s battle-tested playoff experience over the youth of Victor Wembanyama and Co.

Spurs vs Thunder Game 1

The heavyweight clash between the Thunder and Spurs will mark the first series between two teams that won 62 or more games in the regular season since the legendary 1998 NBA Finals between the Utah Jazz and Chicago Bulls.

Via the NBA:

THUNDER: 64 wins in the regular season
SPURS: 62 wins in the regular season

The Western Conference Finals will be the first series between two 62-win teams since the Bulls and Jazz met in the 1998 NBA Finals 😳

The Real NBA Finals?

Many analysts believe that the Spurs vs. Thunder series is a proxy NBA Finals, given that both teams will be favored to beat whoever emerges from the East—the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, or Detroit Pistons.

Some are also convinced that the first-ever series pitting Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder will “define” the future of the NBA, given the average age of both rosters and their potential to dominate for the next decade.

The Athletic believes it is the first of many future playoff matchups.

“It’s the matchup many NBA fans wanted,” wrote the NBA insiders.

“The Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs — the two NBA teams with the best records, 126 regular-season wins between them — took care of business in their respective Western Conference semifinal series. Monday, the top-seeded Thunder and the second-seeded Spurs will tip off in Game 1 of a much-anticipated series to determine the West’s representative for the NBA Finals.

Four of The Athletic’s five insiders — Joel Lorenzi, Dan Woike, Law Murray, Jared Weiss and Jon Krawczynski — picked the Thunder to win. Krawczynski explained why he’s picking Wemby and Co. to ride their momentum into the NBA Finals.

“What a treat this series is going to be. These two teams do not like each other. They will tear each other limb from limb,” he wrote.

“Ultimately, I think Wembanyama’s two-way greatness will be just enough — but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Spurs in 7.”

Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday.