Getty

The Boston Celtics open as massive 8.5-point favorites to beat the Philadelphia 76ers in Saturday’s Game 7 and advance to the second round of the playoffs.

The early betting odds are rather surprising, even though the higher-seeded C’s will play at home and have been the superior team all season.

Why? Simply put, the 76ers have completely outplayed Joe Mazzulla’s team over the last two games, beating the Celtics by an average margin of 14.5 points, while shooting 47% from the field and 38% from three. During the same stretch, the Celtics — who continue to shy away from their “live and die by the three formula” — have shot a paltry 41% from the field and 29% from three while averaging just 95.0 points per game.

Celtics vs. 76ers Game 7

Another concerning trend for Boston has been its inefficient three-point shooting at home. Jaylen Brown and Co. are 1-7 at home this season when they shoot less than 30% from deep, including Tuesday’s Game 5 loss when they went 11-for-39 from distance.

Looking ahead to Game 7, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps explained why the outcome could be wholly determined by how well the Celtics shoot from three.

“The story of this series has been pretty simple: In the three games Boston has won, it has shot almost 42% from 3-point range. In the three games the Celtics have lost, they have shot under 30% from 3,” Bontemps wrote.

“It’s dangerous to simplify things to that degree, but it’s consistent with how the Celtics have typically played under coach Joe Mazzulla. Boston is now 17-1 when it shots 40% or better in the playoffs, and 19-19 when it shoots under 40% — including 4-9 when it shoots under 30%.

“For all the strategic things that can be discussed about this matchup, if you could predict Boston’s 3-point shooting percentage Saturday, you’d have a pretty good indication of how this game will go.”

76ers Force Game 7 vs Celtics

The 76ers, powered by All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey’s 30 points, pulled off a comfortable 106-93 win in Thursday’s Game 6 to force a Game 7.

Nick Nurse’s team was down in the dumps when it went down 3-1 earlier in the series, with few analysts giving them a chance to force a series decider. The return of Joel Embiid has been a huge boost for the 76ers, with the 2023 NBA MVP  serving as an offensive hub and facilitator from the low post. To that end, Embiid has recorded a combined 16 assists over the last two wins for the 7ers.

Nurse urged his team to keep its focus entering Game 7.

“I think we played really well. I think that it doesn’t really matter that much, though,” Nurse said, via ESPN. “I mean, we’ve seen games like this. This is just one game. That’s one story. And you’re going to go back, and it’s just not going to flip a switch and happen again. … We’re going to have to really, really dig in and focus and prepare and get ready for adjustments, and we’re going to have to give a tremendous effort.

“It’s nice to win a couple in a row and it’s nice to win, play the way we did tonight, but it really does not matter. Each game’s its own game.”

Celtics vs 76ers Game 7 tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.