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The Los Angeles Lakers are one win away from the second round, but oddsmakers are not treating them like a team in control.

Despite Kevin Durant being listed out for Houston, Action Network showed the Lakers as 3.5-point road underdogs for Game 6 against the Rockets, with Los Angeles at +150 on the moneyline and Houston at -180. Game 6 is scheduled for Friday night in Houston, with the Lakers leading the first-round series 3-2.

That is the bad news for Los Angeles: even with Durant unavailable, the market is still pricing Game 6 as a Rockets advantage.

It is not hard to see why. Houston has won two straight elimination games, including a 99-93 Game 5 victory in Los Angeles. Jabari Smith Jr. scored 22 points, Tari Eason added 18, and Alperen Sengun finished with 14 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists as the Rockets pushed the series back to Toyota Center.

The Lakers now face their third chance to close the series. They have Austin Reaves back, but Luka Doncic remains out with a hamstring injury, and Houston has found enough offense and defense without Durant to make this a real series again.

Austin Reaves Is Back

Austin Reaves’ return is the best piece of Lakers news entering Game 6, even if it did not immediately end the series.

Reaves came off the bench in Game 5 and scored 22 points in his return from an oblique injury. He had missed the Lakers’ final five regular-season games and the first four games of the series after being injured on April 2 against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Getting Reaves back matters because the Lakers badly need another trusted creator next to LeBron James. Reaves averaged 23.3 points, 5.5 assists and 4.7 rebounds during the regular season, according to Silver Screen and Roll, and his ability to handle, shoot and attack closeouts gives Los Angeles more structure late in possessions.

But Game 5 also showed the difference between being available and being fully back. Reaves produced, but the Lakers still scored just 93 points and missed enough clean looks late to let Houston escape. LeBron James led Los Angeles with 25 points, while Deandre Ayton added 18 points and 17 rebounds.

Reaves helps raise the Lakers’ floor. Game 6 may show whether he is ready to raise their ceiling.

Kevin Durant Ruled Out f0r Rockets

Durant’s status should, on paper, swing the matchup toward the Lakers. Action Network’s injury feed listed Durant as out for Game 6, yet Houston’s two straight wins have come without the star forward.

Durant led Houston at 26.0 points per game during the regular season. His absence removes the Rockets’ cleanest half-court scorer and one of the few players in the league who can consistently beat good defense without needing a major advantage created for him.

That is what makes the Game 6 line notable. The Rockets are not getting the benefit of Durant’s star power, yet they are still favored.

Houston has compensated with depth, pressure and balance. In Game 5, the Rockets held the Lakers under 100 points, forced key mistakes and got decisive late plays from Reed Sheppard after Los Angeles cut the deficit to three in the fourth quarter.

For the Lakers, Durant being out is not enough by itself. They still have to solve the Rockets’ pressure, make Houston pay for helping on LeBron and avoid the dry offensive stretches that turned Game 5.

When is Luka Doncic Coming Back?

There is still no firm return date for Luka Doncic, and that remains the Lakers’ biggest postseason question.

Doncic is out with a hamstring injury. Doncic has been sidelined since April 2, has not yet resumed significant on-court work and is expected to miss at least the beginning of the second round if the Lakers advance.

That puts immediate pressure on Los Angeles to finish the Rockets series as quickly as possible. A Game 6 win would give the Lakers extra recovery time before a likely second-round matchup. A Game 7 would send the series back to Los Angeles, but it would also add more mileage to James, Reaves and the rest of the rotation while delaying any chance to reset.

The Lakers have already proved they can survive without Doncic. They built a 3-0 series lead without him and got Reaves back before Houston could complete the comeback. But surviving the Rockets and making a deeper Western Conference run are not the same thing.

Doncic’s absence lowers the Lakers’ margin for error. Reaves’ return gives them a needed boost. Durant’s absence gives them an opportunity. The problem is that Houston has already won twice without Durant, and oddsmakers still see the Rockets as the better bet at home.

That is the challenge facing the Lakers in Game 6: close the series before the bad news gets worse.