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SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - DECEMBER 23: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder is fouled on a layup attempt by Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs during the game at Frost Bank Center on December 23, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
The Conference Finals of the 2026 NBA Playoffs are set, with the four teams vying for the Finals being the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Throughout the season, both the Thunder and Spurs held the best NBA Finals odds, as those two teams finished the regular season with the best records in the league and, at times, played on a tier of their own, now set for a highly anticipated Western Conference Finals series.
However, the Knicks look like they are playing their best basketball of the season, and the Cavaliers look to be in good form now, too.
With four teams left in the playoffs, each has a solid case to win the championship, but the NBA Finals and Finals MVP odds tell a specific story about who the basketball world believes will end the season as champion.
GettySAN ANTONIO, TEXAS – DECEMBER 23: A general view inside the arena during the first quarter of the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center on December 23, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
According to major sportsbooks and prediction markets, here are the NBA Finals odds for each team playing in the conference finals:
Thunder Finals Odds: -165 on sportsbooks, 59% on prediction markets
Oklahoma City has the reigning MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and are likely the deepest team in the NBA. They’ve held the best Finals odds for most of the year, and are the prohibitive favorites to win the championship for the second year in a row with all their young talent.
Spurs Finals Odds: +310 on sportsbooks, 23% on prediction markets
The Spurs have superstar Victor Wembanyama and a strong young roster. They have a 4-1 record over the Thunder this season, and look like the only team that can give them a real run for their money. San Antonio is inexperienced, but it has a group of rising stars who have played above expectations in the playoffs so far.
Knicks Finals Odds: +550 on sportsbooks, 15% on prediction markets
The Knicks have been a wagon over the past few weeks, with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns finally playing like the duo many thought they could be. New York has also seen great help from their wings and rotational players, and has made a strong case through the first two rounds of the playoffs to finally get over the hump and win their first title in more than 50 years.
Cavaliers Finals Odds: +2000 on sportsbooks, 4% on prediction markets
The Cavaliers have the top-end talent in Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen who can beat anyone on any given night. While they aren’t the best defensive team and don’t have the best depth compared to the other sides fighting for the Finals, both their starting frontcourt and backcourt can give any roster problems if they are in a groove, and could win eight more games to win the title.
Note: NBA Finals odds from top sportsbooks and prediction markets are aggregated together, as listed odds are averages from places like DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi, and Polymarket.
GettyShai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder handles the ball in front of Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs during the first half at Paycom Center on January 13, 2026 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
In what closely follows the Finals odds, the odds for which star player will win the Finals MVP award tell a similar story about which teams are favored to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy this season.
Each team’s leading player has the top Finals MVP odds, but other second options also have a chance to win the award, so here are the odds:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Finals MVP odds: -150 on sportsbooks, 53% on prediction markets
Victor Wembanyama Finals MVP odds: +340 on sportsbooks, 25% on prediction markets
Jalen Brunson Finals MVP odds: +700 on sportsbooks, 10% on prediction markets
Donovan Mitchell Finals MVP odds: +3000 on sportsbooks, 2% on prediction markets
The case for each of these players winning the Finals MVP is simple: they lead their respective sides to a championship and continue playing like the lead star. Typically, the best player on the championship team wins the Finals MVP, but as seen in the past, that isn’t always the case, as someone new comes out of the woodwork and is named the most valuable player of the NBA’s championship series, which could be one of these players:
Karl-Anthony Towns Finals MVP odds: +4000 on sportsbooks, 3% on prediction markets
Chet Holmgren Finals MVP odds: +4500 on sportsbooks, 2% on prediction markets
De’Aaron Fox Finals MVP odds: +15000 on sportsbooks, 2% on prediction markets
Stephon Castle Finals MVP odds: +10000 on sportsbooks, 1% on prediction markets
James Harden Finals MVP odds: +10000 on sportsbooks, 1% on prediction markets
Jalen Williams Finals MVP odds: +6000 on sportsbooks, 2% on prediction markets
Other players on the Thunder, Spurs, Knicks, and Cavaliers all also have Finals MVP odds, but it would be a long shot for any of them to win the award.
There are still two conference finals series to be played, but with just four teams remaining in the 2026 NBA Playoffs, the Finals and Finals MVP odds are starting to take shape. Still, the defending champion Thunder remain the favorites, and Gilgeous-Alexander is the top player to win the Finals MVP award for the second year in a row.
Eli Gregorski is a sports journalist covering the NBA for Heavy Sports. He has years of sports writing experience covering the NBA, NFL, college football and basketball, international soccer, and Formula One. He graduated from the University of Colorado Boulder, where he was the assistant sports editor for the award-winning CU Independent student publication. More about Eli Gregorski
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