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New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (23) battles San Antonio Spurs defenders for possession during a physical matchup, highlighting his elite rebounding and interior presence.

The New York Knicks face a pivotal offseason decision on center Mitchell Robinson, with a new contract projection from ESPN front office insider Bobby Marks offering fresh clarity on his market value as the team continues its playoff push.

Marks suggested Robinson’s next deal could land at three years, $39 million, a structure that would pay him $13 million annually and place him in a defined tier among defensive-minded centers.

Mitchell Robinson Contract Projection Signals Market Value

According to Marks, Robinson’s projected deal would mirror the total value of Steven Adams’ recent extension with the Houston Rockets, though structured differently with a flat annual salary rather than a declining one.

That $13 million figure would also essentially match the $12.95 million Robinson is earning in the final year of his declining four-year, $60 million contract, signaling little to no raise as he approaches unrestricted free agency.

“The deal I’d offer: Three years, $39 million,” Marks wrote.

The projection reflects how front offices may view Robinson — a highly effective defensive anchor whose offensive limitations continue to shape his value.

Marks identified the Knicks, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks and LA Clippers as potential fits, suggesting Robinson could draw interest from contenders in need of rebounding and rim protection.

Knicks Salary Cap Situation Adds Complexity

New York’s financial outlook could ultimately determine whether Robinson remains with the franchise.

The Knicks are currently about $13 million below the NBA’s second apron, with 10 players already under contract, including their first-round pick. Any deal above the veteran minimum could push the team into second apron territory — a threshold that significantly limits roster flexibility, according to Marks.

Robinson is eligible to sign an extension before June 30, but the Knicks must weigh his value against their long-term cap structure as they build around Jalen Brunson and a deep supporting cast.

Mitchell Robinson Impact Remains Elite in Key Areas

Despite limited minutes, Robinson continues to produce at an elite level in specific areas.

He averaged 4.2 offensive rebounds per game during the regular season — the second-highest mark in the NBA — despite playing fewer than 20 minutes per contest.

Marks cited the advanced metrics, which further highlight Robinson’s impact. In more than 2,300 possessions this season, the Knicks outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions with Robinson on the floor. That number jumped to plus-21.8 when paired with lineups featuring Brunson, Miles McBride, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges.

Robinson also appeared in 60 games this season, surpassing his total from the previous two years combined (48), a positive development after multiple injury-shortened campaigns.

Free Throw Struggles Continue to Limit Role

GettyNew York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson looks on during the Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

While Robinson’s defensive presence and rebounding remain valuable, his free throw shooting continues to present challenges — particularly in the postseason.

He owns the lowest free throw percentage in NBA playoff history among players with at least 100 attempts, making him vulnerable to intentional fouling strategies.

That issue resurfaced in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals, when Robinson finished with four points, four rebounds and one block in 12 minutes, missing all four of his free throw attempts. He played just three minutes in the second half as the Knicks adjusted their rotation.

Opponents, including the Cleveland Cavaliers, have leaned into “Hack-a-Mitch” tactics, forcing New York into difficult lineup decisions late in games.

Playoff Performance Adds Stakes to Free Agency Outlook

Robinson’s postseason performance could ultimately shape his market as free agency approaches.

Ahead of Game 2, he drew attention for announcing he had changed his phone number and deleted social media to “lock in” for the playoffs — a reflection of his focus during a critical stretch.

As the Knicks chase their first NBA Finals appearance since 1999, Robinson’s role remains impactful but situational.

And with free agency looming, the projection of a contract that mirrors both Steven Adams’ recent deal and Robinson’s current salary underscores the central question facing New York: whether his elite defense and rebounding outweigh the limitations that may ultimately define his price on the open market.