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Kevin Stefanski's first season with the Falcons projected not to go well.

The Atlanta Falcons learned what their path for the upcoming season will look like after the release of the 2026 NFL schedule. The Falcons will have the fourth-easiest schedule in the league based on their opponents’ winning percentage in 2025 (.465). However, if things go according to projections, it could still be a dreary season in Atlanta.

The Falcons enter 2026 with perhaps more questions than answers, mostly because of a new front office and coaching staff led by general manager Ian Cunningham and head coach Kevin Stefanski. Then, of course, there is the question of who will prove more reliable at quarterback between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr.

However, according to Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton, the defense may be Atlanta’s biggest issue in 2026, ultimately leading to the team’s downfall.

Falcons’ Defense Could Become Biggest Problem In 2026

Defense was a major question mark for the Falcons last season under then-head coach Raheem Morris, even after bringing in Jeff Ulbrich to fix things. But after drafting two first-round pass rushers along with making several other moves, Atlanta ended up with statistically the best pass rush in the NFL.

Getting to the quarterback is one thing, though. Preventing teams from scoring points is another.

“The Falcons’ biggest issue will be their defense. Play-caller Jeff Ulbrich has led units that finished in the bottom half of the league in points allowed over the last three years, dating back to his time with the New York Jets,” Moton wrote.

The Falcons ranked 19th in points allowed last season, surrendering 23.5 points per game.

Another concern involves the pass rush, specifically with sack leader James Pearce Jr., whose future remains uncertain. There is a strong possibility the NFL could hand down a suspension after Pearce was charged with multiple felonies and a misdemeanor stemming from an altercation involving his ex-girlfriend and police in Doral, Florida.

Moton ultimately projects the Falcons to finish 5-12, with the offense being forced to carry far too much of the burden.

“Atlanta will play the AFC North. Stefanski knows that division well, which bodes well for matchups against those squads, but the Falcons may need to score 30-plus points to win games this year, and they’re not equipped to do that with their quarterback situation,” Moton added.

That record would obviously extend Atlanta’s playoff drought to nine consecutive seasons. It would also be their worst finish since 2020 after going 4-12.

Quarterback Questions Could Define Falcons’ Future

Figuring out who will start at quarterback will be the first major issue Atlanta must solve.

“The Falcons would love for one quarterback to win the job out of training camp and keep it the entire season en route to breaking the team’s nine-season playoff drought,” ESPN’s Marc Raimondi wrote. “The latter might end up happening, but the former two are dicey. Both Tagovailoa and Penix each have a long injury history. If the past is any indication, both will get starts this season. Look for the competition to really heat up depending on the outcome of those three straight primetime games.”

From Week 3 to Week 5, the Falcons will be on the road against the Green Bay Packers (TNF) and New Orleans Saints (MNF), followed by back at home for the Baltimore Ravens (MNF).

But it won’t be only during those primetime games, the quarterback situation will receive constant attention throughout the 2026 season, especially if the belief grows that the Falcons are really positioning themselves for 2027 and their long-term answer at the position.

There is certainly a chance both Tagovailoa and Penix prove the Falcons’ new leadership wrong. But that remains a significant question mark, particularly with Cunningham and Stefanski potentially wanting to draft their own quarterback in what is expected to be a loaded 2027 class.