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Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. gets unfortunate prediction going into minicamp.

With the Atlanta Falcons‘ mandatory minicamp set to begin this week, the focus still remains on the quarterback competition between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa.

The question, though, is whether there will even be a true competition.

There has yet to be one because Penix is still being limited while recovering from the ACL surgery he underwent after suffering a season-ending injury last November.

“It’s tough to have a competition when both guys aren’t competing at the same level right now,” offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt told reporters during OTAs. “So, it’s hard and it’ll come. It’ll happen at some point. Mike’s done a great job of getting himself to where he is right now. Really impressive to take 7-on-7 reps and go out and compete. That’s been great. But really, there’s no competition until we can actually evaluate him equally.”

Penix may never get an even playing field, though, and much of that revolves around his recovery timeline. That could have major implications for his future in Atlanta.

In fact, some already believe his career trajectory is heading in the wrong direction.

Michael Penix Jr. Receives Bust Prediction

CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan recently listed Penix among quarterbacks he believes will ultimately bust.

“Michael Penix Jr. is in a tough spot this summer,” Sullivan wrote. “While he was drafted to be the franchise cornerstone following Atlanta’s stunning selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, things have gone downhill.”

Sullivan pointed to Penix’s injury, the presence of Tagovailoa and the Falcons’ new leadership group as reasons for concern.

“The Falcons have an entirely new leadership group with Matt Ryan named president of football, Ian Cunningham hired as GM and Kevin Stefanski brought in as head coach,” Sullivan wrote. “None of them are tied to making the Penix pick work, which creates an even tougher road for him to beat out Tagovailoa.”

The numbers also don’t help Penix’s case.

Through 12 starts, Penix owns a 4-8 record while completing 59.6% of his passes.

“Even without considering the injury, Tagovailoa is a far more proven starter and will likely beat him out for the job this summer,” Sullivan wrote.

Despite acknowledging Penix’s upside, Sullivan’s final verdict was pretty straightforward.

“Our prediction: Will bust.”

Tua Tagovailoa Continues Building Early Edge For Falcons QB Job

Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski also believes Tagovailoa currently holds the advantage.

“The Atlanta Falcons have not given up on Michael Penix Jr. after only two seasons,” Sobleski wrote. “However, the ties that bind are no longer in place after the organization fired the general manager and head coach who made him the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.”

Sobleski added that Tagovailoa is the better fit in Kevin Stefanski’s offense while benefiting from Penix’s limited workload.

“Instead, Tua Tagovailoa is the more logical fit within Kevin Stefanski’s offensive scheme, while having an early leg up in the competition as Penix continues his recovery from a torn ACL,” he wrote.

Tagovailoa has his own injury history, particularly with concussions, but he’s healthy and taking the majority of the first-team reps.

For Penix, the biggest obstacle may simply be time.

Atlanta’s coaching staff has repeatedly stressed that the competition can’t truly begin until he’s fully healthy. But with minicamp underway and training camp not far away, every missed rep could make climbing back into the race even more difficult.