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The New England Patriots can't ignore a "cliff" warning about trade target, Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Brown.
As the A.J. Brown and New England Patriots saga rumbles on and on, and on, not many are asking whether the AFC Champions are doing the right thing working toward an inevitable trade for the three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver. Except for one naysayer who has given the Pats a strong warning about what their price limit should be, based on which direction the Philadelphia Eagles star’s career is headed.
The warning comes from Andrew Perloff of Athlon Sports. He used former Patriots six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach Bill Belichick to explain why the AFC East outfit shouldn’t overpay for Brown, despite a deal apparently being imminent.
Perloff is convinced Belichick “would not trade a first-round pick for an aging receiver when the team on the other end gave up its leverage months ago. Brown is worth closer to a third-round pick at this point. The Patriots may have to offer a second to ward off other suitors, but that’s as far as they should go even if they risk losing the talented receiver.”
Of course, the question isn’t what Belichick would offer for Brown, but what price will current head coach Mike Vrabel pay for a pass-catcher he knows well? Brown became a Pro Bowler on Vrabel’s watch with the Tennessee Titans in 2020, but Perloff outlined an underlying issue the Patriots cannot ignore about their would-be No. 1 receiver.
There are compelling reasons why the Patriots don’t need to part with first-round draft compensation. Not when any other market for Brown is illusory at best, but there’s a stronger incentive for the Patriots not to give up a top pick.
It’s to do with Brown’s longevity as one of the more productive receivers in the NFL. Perloff pointed out that “While Brown has had a fantastic career, he will turn 29 on June 30. He averaged a career-low 12.9 yards per reception last season and Pro Football Focus gave him a career-worst 83.4 grade. Brown supporters will point to the broken offense in Philly last season and quarterback Jalen Hurts’ ineffectiveness. Even if Brown returns to his elite level of play in ’26, how long will it last? Most receivers hit a cliff at 30, especially explosive physical ones like Brown. Even surefire Hall of Famer Julio Jones, who played with a similar style, started to decline after the season in which he turned 29.”
Those sentiments are echoed by Taylor Kyles of Patriots on CLNS, who stated, “I don’t think anybody’s gonna wanna give up a first-rounder next year for a receiver who is getting older, who does have knee problems that are probably only gonna get worse as he gets older…”
Is #Patriots deal for A.J. Brown about to fall apart?
“I don’t think anybody’s gonna wanna give up a first-rounder next year for a receiver who is getting older, who does have knee problems that are probably only gonna get worse as he gets older…Again, I think it happens, but
Whether Brown is in decline is open for debate. He rarely warmed to life in the Eagles’ offense, particularly his own role in the passing game, but there’s no doubt some of Brown’s core numbers have been in decline.
Stats like the 3.4 yards after catch per reception he tallied in 2025, down from 5.3 the year before, according to Pro Football Reference. Brown also moved the chains 46 times last season, after tallying 63 first downs in 2024.
The Patriots would soon regret swapping priceless first-round capital for Brown if he’s on the wane. Especially when staying competitive in the conference is tougher than ever.
They were a surprise package when they muscled their way back to AFC supremacy last season, but the Patriots can’t count on doing the same in 2026 and beyond. Not even with Brown on board.
As Perloff put it, “If this is a one-year rental, that is even more reason for the Pats to hold on to their first-round picks. NFL history has proved that going from a Super Bowl runner-up to a champion is typically not a straight line. New England got through the AFC playoff field without facing the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens and played against a backup quarterback in Denver in the AFC title game. Are they really on the brink of a championship?”
It’s a valid argument when the conference is loaded with talented teams and some of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game. The Patriots have their own star signal-caller, third-year pro Drake Maye, and he needs Brown, but New England’s QB1 will benefit more from a roster deeper at multiple key positions.
De facto general manager Eliot Wolf won’t be able to stay ahead of the curve if he’s dealing away first-round picks for players on the wrong side of their career arcs.
James Dudko covers the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens for Heavy.com. He has covered the NFL and world soccer since 2011, with bylines at FanSided, Prime Time Sports Talk and Bleacher Report before joining Heavy in 2021. More about James Dudko
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