Getty

Anonymous NFL executives debate if a first-round pick is fair compensation for the Patriots to send to the Eagles for A.J. Brown.

The long wait for the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles to make a trade that sends star wide receiver A.J. Brown appears to be almost over. With the calendar turning to June, the only question remaining seems to be what the Patriots send back to Philadelphia.

By all accounts, the Eagles want a first-round pick for Brown. There’s some debate if the Patriots are willing to send a 2028 first-round pick or would prefer not to send a first-round pick at all, though. So, it’s worth looking into what executives around the NFL think would be fair compensation.

“No first-round pick is fair,” an assistant general manager said, being quoted by Doug Kyed of The Boston Herald.

There’s a couple of basic reasons why the assistant general manager, who remained anonymous, wouldn’t think a first-round pick is fair. It starts with Brown’s age. 2026 will be his age 29 season. Then, there are also some concerns about his knee health.

Statistically, Brown has also declined. At his best in Philadelphia, he was good for better than 1,400 yards in 2022 and 2023. In the two seasons since then, he’s been down closer to 1,ooo yards. Still great, but not the same level of dominance. That includes his yards per reception dipping to 12.9 in 2025, a career low and down from his career average of 15.3 yards per reception.

“You’re renting a declining asset,” he said. “In no way should they give up a one.”

A scout in the NFC warned that Eagles GM Howie Roseman is one of the best in the business and rarely loses trades. Not getting a first-round pick would look like a trade loss for Roseman. At the same time, the scout thinks that would be an overpay for the Patriots.

“He’s still good but closer to declining than ascending, in my opinion,” the scout said. “Along with any potential volatility that may follow, but obviously, hopefully not.”

Not Everyone Agrees a First-Round Pick Wouldn’t Be Fair for the New England Patriots to Spend on A.J. Brown

Despite some real concerns, the Patriots could still be sending a first-round pick for A.J. Brown. For some, it may end up being an overpay. However, as an NFC analytics executive argued, that would be fair given the market set earlier this offseason by the Jaylen Waddle trade, which was a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and swapping fourth-round picks.

“It’s really tough to argue otherwise when Waddle just went for a first — both great players, but at nearly the same age, there’s been a lot more production from Brown over the past few years,” the analytics executive said.

In terms of analytics people in the NFL, that executive isn’t alone. Another one in the AFC agreed that a first is what it should cost.

“I’d rather have the first, but I could see why a team would be compelled,” he said.

The Eagles Lack Leverage When Trading Brown

If there is one major positive for the Patriots in the Brown negotiations, it’s that the Eagles don’t seem to have much leverage. Brown clearly wants out, and Philadelphia clearly wants to move on from him. However, there aren’t suitors outside of New England to leverage in negotiations.

“I was on a Philadelphia radio show this morning,” ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently said. “They brought up the idea that the Rams could be getting back in. They brought up the idea that the Jaguars could be getting back in. That’s interesting.”

Schefter would go on to dismiss the chances these teams are actually in on Brown, though. They had their chance earlier in the offseason and passed.

“I will remain in the camp that we’ve been in for the last 6-7 weeks. Which is that I still think [AJ Brown] is getting traded. I still think he’s getting traded on or shortly after June 1. I still think the New England Patriots are going away the lead contender to land AJ Brown this offseason. I don’t care what other teams come up in connection with A.J. Brown trade talks between now and June 1,” Schefter said.

“Don’t care about what conversations there are. These other teams have had their opportunities throughout the offseason. There were conversations with the Rams that did not result in a deal. I don’t know about Jacksonville. I don’t even know where that’s coming from, but I still think that the New England Patriots make the most sense. I still think when all is said and done that the Patriots will wind up agreeing to a deal that will land AJ Brown in New England.”

So, it looks like it’s going to be Patriots or bust for the Eagles to trade Brown. The only thing left is finalizing the price and when the deal goes through.