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Baker Mayfield is excited to get to work with new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zac Robinson

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one win away from winning the division last season, and they are going to be right back in the mix to win the NFC South again in 2026. Despite an offseason that saw stars like Mike Evans and Lavonte David leave the roster, the team is in one of the most wide-open divisions in the NFL, per Kevin Patra of NFL Network. With that in mind, they are capable of making a legitimate run.

The Carolina Panthers were deemed one of the worst playoff teams in the NFL. The debate was either them or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Because the Steelers play in a division with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in their division, they were ranked as more likely to lose their division title than the Panthers. However, Carolina was the second most likely team to lose their division title.

While it could be any of the three teams who are making a run at it, the Bucs are currently the favorites, ahead of the reigning champions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Are Expected to Win the NFC South

The biggest issue for the Panthers will be that their schedule is much harder. They came into the 2025 season with one of the lighter schedules due to their finish in 2024. They beat up on some bad teams to stack wins and then when the Bucs fell apart, they were there to take advantage.

Patra does not think the Panthers will get the same schedule breaks this year. While Carolina did make some solid offseason moves, they still have Bryce Young, and most analysts are still skeptical that he can consistently win from the pocket.

Another team with a questionable quarterback situation is the Atlanta Falcons. The team has a new head coach, and Michael Pennix Jr. is recovering from an ACL injury. So, Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start the year. However, he is now changing teams and offenses, and that might take time.

In the meantime, he has injuries himself, and Pennix will only be getting healthier while Tagovailoa learns the offense. Lastly is the New Orleans Saints, who finished hot, but might still be one year away from a real run. They are a young team that is figuring it out on defense, and they just drafted Jordyn Tyson to complete their wide receiver room. That might take time.

Tampa Bay had the Best Offseason in the NFC South

The Buccaneers took a step forward, while some of these teams might have maintained or taken a step back. The Bucs biggest issues entering the offseason were their defensive line and linebackers. They had Reuben Bain fall to them, giving them a huge boost at the defensive line. Then, they drafted Josiah Trotter to compete with two new free agent linebackers.

They have been in the division battle until the last week of the year every season that Baker Mayfield has been their quarterback. If he does not get hurt, and if the roster does not fall apart, they should be right in the mix. Questions around the other teams are why they are viewed as the division favorite.