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AJ Dybantsa #3 of the BYU Cougars is one player at stake with the NBA draft lottery looming.
For a handful of teams, no matter exactly how the NBA draft lottery on Sunday pans out, things will be set to change dramatically. That’s because, after months of hand-wringing over NBA teams intentionally tanking games and after a year of hearing just how deep and talented this draft is at the top, we’re finally ready to determine the final draft order for next month’s event. Then we’ll know whether the risks so many teams took have paid off, with players like AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson on the board.
“It’s going to be league-changing stuff,” one Western Conference executive said. “Every draft is, but there has been a lot of focus on this one, a lot of teams deciding to sit players, deciding to lose and it is all because of this, because you want the ping-pong balls coming out in your favor. You can get incredibly lucky. Or you can get hosed.”
Some teams have more riding on this than others. Here’s what’s worth watching for.
The Pacers and Clippers ignited some real drama in the NBA draft lottery when they pulled off a unique trade in February, when the Clippers sent star center Ivica Zubac to Indiana in a package that included Bennedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson, along with a 2029 first-round pick. The deal also includes this year’s pick, with some provisos–it is protected for the Top 4.
The Pacers finished 19-63, second-worst in the NBA, and that gives them a 14.0% chance to win the No. 1 pick overall. It also give them a 52.1% chance to finish among the Top 4 in the draft. The Wizards and Nets have the same chances as they do to finish in the Top 4, so all it would take is for the Pacers to finish third among those teams, and have two teams jump ahead of them to knock Indiana to No. 5.
And if that happens, with a 47.9% chance, the Clippers–who had a rough go of things this year and do not know how the Kawhi Leonard situation will play out–could land the No. 5 overall pick, and all the Pacers’ tanking will have yielded no immediate result. (The Clippers, for what it’s worth, get a 2031 first-rounder if they don’t get this year’s pick.)
But while that is a huge aspect of the upcoming NBA draft lottery, an Eastern Conference executive said it’s the Clippers’ original pick that bears watching. That’s because it sits currently with Oklahoma City, part of the devastating deal L.A. pulled off to get Paul George back in 2019.
The Clippers did rebound to finish last year strong, at 42-40, though they did not get into the playoffs. They enter the lottery with the No. 12 pick, and a 1.5% chance to win the top overall pick. They have a 7.1% chance to move into the Top 4. The Mavericks, remember, won the lottery last year with a 1.8% chance.
“That’s the nightmare for the league,” the exec said. “It’s a nightmare for Adam Silver because the rich keep getting richer. But it’s a bigger nightmare for the rest of us because, how do you keep trying to compete with a team that is so good and also sitting on so many assets?”
Indeed, it gets worse–the Thunder also have the No. 17 overall pick from the Sixers. Next year, OKC will have picks incoming from the Nuggets, Clippers (a swap) and the Spurs.
Also of note: The results of this lottery could have an impact on the upcoming NBA trade market, which is expected to be busy. And no one dominates that chatter like Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo.
First, Milwaukee has a 3.0% chance to win the lottery, and a 13.9% chance to finish in the Top 4. But the Bucks then are subject to a swap if they move up.
Also, it’s possible that a Giannis suitor could crop up in the Top 4 and suddenly be in a much stronger position to make a deal for him. Keep and eye on the Warriors at No. 11 and the Heat at No. 13 in that context. Both are longshots to win the lottery, but even a Top 4 pick in this class can greatly sweeten an offer.
Of course, the NBA draft lottery results will be meaningful for the six big tankers of last season, beyond Indiana–the Wizards and the Nets have equal shots at the No. 1 pick, while the Jazz, Kings and Grizzlies did their best to put themselves in the running for top billing. Karma could punish some of those outfits, but not all.
Also of note are the Dallas Mavericks, who would sure like to hit the daily double after picking Cooper Flagg last season first overall. The Mavs have a 6.7% chance to win the lottery, and a 29.0% chance to finish in the Top 4, which would be huge because the team has left itself in a bad situation thereafter–the Mavs don’t control their own pick until 2031.
This could be a big opportunity, too, for the Warriors–they are No. 11 and are desperately hoping to get a bit of lotto luck as they try to piece together a revamped outfit around Stephen Curry for one last push now that coach Steve Kerr is returning.
Sean Deveney is a veteran sports reporter covering the NBA, NFL and MLB for Heavy.com. He has written for Heavy since 2019 and has more than two decades of experience covering the NBA, including 17 years as the lead NBA reporter for the Sporting News. Deveney is the author of 7 nonfiction books, including "Fun City," "Before Wrigley became Wrigley," and "Facing Michael Jordan." More about Sean Deveney
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