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Marcus Smart #36 of the Los Angeles Lakers

When it comes to the Los Angeles Lakers, there is much we do not know about how things will play out over the next month, when the league will be undergoing its changes and undulations on the trade and free agency markets. The Lakers not only have as many as eight free agents in waiting, but seven of those free agents (sorry, Maxi Kleber) are of significant quality and will get attention on the market.

Sure, there is LeBron James and Austin Reaves, two of the biggest names available. But there are, too, veterans like Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart, and swing pieces like Rui Hachimura and Jaxson Hayes.

That means that the Lakers will have some choices to make. Increasingly, word is that the Lakers like a lot of the players they have on hand, and rather than making sweeping changes to the roster, could instead bring back a lot of last season’s players with just one midrange addition worth in the $20 million AAV range, likely for a big man.

Making choices on getting rid of players who helped on the floor and in the locker room–Smart and Hachimura, perhaps–won’t be easy. “They have cap space and that’s a great position to be in,” one Western Conference executive said. “But they really like their group. They’re going to have to make a painful decision or two with that roster.”

Lakers Have Significant Free Agents This Summer

Indeed, in the latest Heavy Sports projections on what the free-agent Lakers will be paid this summer, the numbers get very high, very fast. To wit:

• Austin Reaves. (Projected contract: 5 years, $200 million). Reaves will opt out of the $15 million left on his contract and the Lakers will pay him. The $240 million max deal is unlikely.
• Luke Kennard. (Projected contract: 3 years, $40 million) Something a shade less than the midlevel will do it.
• Marcus Smart. (Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million) Smart has a player option around $6 million, and he played well enough to take a chance in free agency.
• LeBron James. (Projected contract: 2 years, $50 million) It’s a strong bet he will go back to the Lakers, though his flirtations elsewhere continue.
• Rui Hachimura.  (Projected contract: 3 years, $60 million) His value is tough to pin down, because he should get in the $20 million per year range.
• Deandre Ayton. (Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million) Ayton has an $8 million player option.
• Jaxson Hayes. (Projected contract: 3 years, $30 million) Hayes wants to return to the Lakers, but if he gets a significant offer—with more playing time—he would have to take it.

Decision-Making Up in the Air

Add it all up, factor in an outside free-agent signing, and you’re over $450 million–if the Lakers keep everyone, that is.

Those numbers are based on conversations about the Lakers, from outside the organization, so there’s no telling just what the team will be comfortable with, especially with a new front office being built. Yes, Rob Pelinka is still the GM, but new Lakers owner Mark Walter has expanded and modernized the relatively rustic Lakers front office, and Pelinka is hardly the only voice in the room anymore.

How much of a change in approach this will all lead to is yet to be seen. But the Lakers figure to be more analytical and data-driven in their decision-making. That could favor some players (Smart and Hayes, for example) and hurt others (Ayton).