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Walker Kessler is one of the highlights of NBA free agency.

For Jazz center Walker Kessler, the events of the last week amount to a cry for help. That’s because he can see what is coming–NBA free agency is a tough slog for restricted players, and Kessler is heading into a his RFA summer. The Jazz have all the leverage, especially once other teams pass on making an offer to Kessler (who played only five games last season with a foot injury) and move on to other players.  That figures to happen pretty early in the cycle. There is a limited amount of free-agent money available–the Nets, Bulls and Lakers have the bulk of it–and Kessler needs to get an offer from one of those teams once free agency opens.

If that does not happen, he loses all leverage.

Executives around the league noted that both the Bulls and Lakers, going back into last season, had eyes on a Kessler deal. The problem is that the Jazz can match that deal, and have a day to do so. If the Lakers or Bulls make a bid for Kessler and Utah matches, the Lakers or Bulls would have gotten nothing out of the process except a wasted day.

But Kessler has no other means to drum up another offer. As one Western Conference executive said, “For any guy who is restricted, once they get past July 4 or 5, there’s no money left, no offers left, and the team has all the control. So, if you’re Utah, of course you are going to sit it out, make him get a bigger offer and once that does not happen, it’s, ‘This is our offer, take it or leave it.'”

Walker Kessler Faces Tough NBA Free Agency Road

Still, it is possible that the Bulls or the Lakers would step in and gamble on an offer. News this week that he is unhappy with his lot in Utah was designed to encourage other teams to make bids for him in the longshot hope that the offers won’t be matched. It was a plea, really, to be saved from a summer of restricted free agent Purgatory.

The Jazz obviously are paying two big men (Jaren Jackson Jr. at an AAV of $51 million for four years, and Lauri Markkanen at an AAV of $50 million for three years) and would have to weigh the wisdom of adding a third on top of that.

The last offer to Kessler was five years and $140 million, or $28 million AAV. Kessler wants something more in the range of $35-40 million AAV.

He also appears to want out of Utah. He only has two choices on that front–get the Bulls or Lakers to come through with an offer and hope the Jazz do not match, or take the qualifying offer for $14.6 million over one year and become an unrestricted free agent in 2027.

With that, though, let’s check in on the NBA free-agent big board, with free agency less than two weeks away.

NBA Free Agency Guards: Austin Reaves on Top

1. Austin Reaves, Lakers. (Projected contract: 5 years, $200 million). Reaves will opt out of the $15 million left on his contract and the Lakers will pay him–though a reported threat from the Nets and others loom. The $240 million max deal is unlikely, but also unlikely is a scenario in which the Lakers are outbid for him.
2. James Harden, Cavaliers. (Projected contract: two years, $60 million) There have been rumors of a handshake deal on a new contract for Harden, which would start by him opting out of the $42 million on his contract for next season. Harden had a poor postseason, but the Cavs are locked in on him.
3. Trae Young, Wizards. (Projected contract: 3 years, $110 million) He’s got a player option at $49 million, but he will likely opt out in favor of a longer-term deal.
4. Ayo Dosunmu, Timberwolves. (Projected contract: 3 years, $52 million) He’s due a big raise after a strong postseason in Minnesota, and we’re forecasting him getting something better than the midlevel exception to stay in Minnesota.
5. Bennedict Mathurin, Clippers. (Projected contract: 3 years, $60 million) Shooting struggles after his trade to the Clippers could complicate restricted free agency, which is always complicated enough as is. But L.A. brought in Mathurin as a chip from the Ivica Zubac trade and have ample desire to keep him in place.
6. Coby White, Hornets. (Projected contract: 4 years, $70 million) Thrived down the stretch off the bench for the Hornets, and it’d be a surprise if Charlotte let him walk.
7. CJ McCollum, Hawks. (Projected contract: 3 years, $65 million) He will take a cut from his $30 million last year, but the Hawks have no long-term point guard answer. Running it back with McCollum on a short-term deal, with an option, makes sense.
8. Collin Gillespie, Suns. (Projected contract: 4 years, $42 million) Breakout year with 12.7 points and 40% 3-point shooting should mean a sizable raise. Expect the Suns to re-sign him.
9. Luke Kennard, Lakers. (Projected contract: 3 years, $40 million) The Lakers are weighing keeping Kennard, who was a good fit as a shooter and bench player. Something a shade less than the midlevel will do it.
10. Marcus Smart, Lakers. (Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million) Another guy the Lakers want back. Smart has a player option around $6 million, and it’s not certain he will opt out but he played well enough to take a chance in free agency. He can get another tax-payer midlevel deal ($6 million) if it doesn’t work out.
11. Anfernee Simons, Bulls. (Projected contract: 3 years, $55 million) Simons is an excellent scorer off the bench, and if he re-signs with the Bulls, he could make a bit more than the midlevel exception. The Bulls would likely trade him down the line, but he’d be a valuable chip.
12. Quentin Grimes, Sixers. (Projected contract: 4 years, $60 million) The Sixers may have to choose between Grimes and Kelly Oubre, but he has earned a lengthy midlevel-plus deal.
13. Jose Alvarado, Knicks. (Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million) He has outdone his $4.5 million player option for next year. The Knicks would like to have him back, but likely can’t afford it.
14. Jordan Goodwin, Suns.  (Projected contract: 3 years, $20 million) Goodwin won’t be the Suns’ top free-agent priority but they value his defense and could lock him up on a team-friendly deal.

NBA Free Agency Forwards: LeBron James to Make Another Decision

1. LeBron James, Lakers. (Projected contract: 2 years, $50 million) James has a three-fold decision ahead: Whether to play or retire; where to play; and for how much? It’s a strong bet he will go back to the Lakers, though his flirtations elsewhere continue. He likes to control his destiny, so he may seek a two-year deal with an option.
2. Peyton Watson, Nuggets. (Projected contract: 4 years, $80 million) Watson is a restricted free agent who was in the midst of a breakout season before he was felled by hamstring injuries. Watson is restricted, and will need to draw interest from another team with cap space (Lakers, Bulls, Nets) to push his value, but if not, Denver will hold the cards and get hm on a reasonable contract.
3. Lu Dort, Thunder. (Projected contract: 3 years, $50 million) OKC has a $19 million option on Dort, and they’ll likely need to let him go, as the roster begins to get more expensive. Can he draw an offer better than the midlevel?
4. Norman Powell, Heat. (Projected contract: 2 years, $50 million)  Coming off an All-Star season, Powell is looking for a raise from the $20 million per year he made last season. Miami wants him back, but he’s 33 and it will need to be a short-term deal.
5. Tari Eason, Rockets.  (Projected contract: 4 years, $88 million) Eason is said to have turned down nine figures from the Rockets, but that was not full guaranteed. Restricted free agency will be tough terrain, but a deal in this range likely works for all.
6. Andrew Wiggins, Heat. (Projected contract: 3 years, $60 million) Wiggins has a player option for $30 million next year, and he is likely to opt in on that unless he gets a longer term deal such as this. He’s still a good two-way player who shot a career high 41.4% on 3s.
7. Jonathan Kuminga, Hawks. (Projected contract: 3 years, $63 million) Kuminga has a $24 million team option, and there is chatter that there is already a handshake agreement for a long-term deal. It would make sense for Atlanta to keep him on that one-year deal and figure out how he fits in.
8. Tobias Harris, Pistons. (Projected contract: 2 years, $40 million) Fan bases always complain about Harris, until the chips are down and you realize how much value he has. The Pistons could let him walk but would struggle to replace him.
9. Rui Hachimura, Lakers.  (Projected contract: 3 years, $60 million) His value is tough to pin down, because he should get in the $20 million per year range but there are not many teams that will have the flexibility to give him that. The Bulls or Nets could make a run.
10. Draymond Green, Warriors. (Projected contract: 2 years, $38 million) Green could opt in at $28 million, but he has said himself it’s more likely he will opt out and sign a two-year deal. That’s the going NBA rumor. He could knock down his payout to help the team’s cap situation.
11. Kelly Oubre, Sixers. (Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million) Oubre is a journeyman (the Sixers are his fifth team) who seems to have found a home. If Philly keeps Grimes, they might need to let Oubre go.
12. John Collins, Clippers. (Projected contract: 2 years, $16 million) Collins is not the 20-and-10 guy he once was, but he played well as a stretch big man who’s not a great defender. The Clippers won’t reach too far to keep him, so he could be scooped up elsewhere as a bargain signing.
13. Dean Wade, Cavaliers. (Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million) Wade has been a valuable defensive piece on a team that can’t afford to lose defensive pieces. Reports suggest the Cavaliers aim to keep him.
    

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    Centers: NBA Rumors Around Jalen Duren, Walker Kessler

    1. Jalen Duren, Pistons. (Projected contract: 5 years, $200 million) Duren is the Pistons’ player to lose, and the Pistons do not plan to lose him. He’s a restricted free agent, so the Pistons will match any offer, or work out their own with him.
    2. Walker Kessler, Jazz. (Projected contract: 4 years, $120 million) Restricted free agents will be vying for outside offers, and Kessler could be the best candidate to get one. The Bulls and Lakers are known to have strong interest. The Jazz want to keep him, but will they pay top dollar to do so?
    3. Isaiah Hartenstein, Thunder. (Projected contract: 3 years, $65 million) The expectation is that the Thunder will opt out of Hartenstein’s $28 million for 2026-27 but re-up on a longer term deal.
    4. Robert Williams, Blazers. (Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million) He is generating considerable free-agent buzz as a potential value big man. Williams is an impact player when healthy, but knee troubles have limited him. He should cash in after playing 59 games and looking sharp in the playoffs.
    5. Deandre Ayton, Lakers. (Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million) Ayton has an $8 million player option, and despite his improvements with the Lakers, accepting or declining that will not be an easy decision. He might bet that there is a bigger number out there at something less than the midlevel exception.
    6. Mitchell Robinson, Knicks. (Projected contract: 2 years, $40 million)  The Knicks’ postseason run has pretty well secured Robinson’s future in New York. Injury concerns will keep the deal short, perhaps with a team option on a non-guaranteed third year.
    7. Kristaps Porzingis, Warriors. (Projected contract: 2 years, $35 million) The Warriors did not trade for Porzingis just to let him walk, but his lack of availability will limit what they’re willing to pay him to keep him around.
    8. Mark Williams, Suns. (Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million) If Williams can’t drum up an offer in restricted free agency, this could be a situation that drags out until he signs his $10 million qualifying offer. Injuries could make the Suns wary, but $12 million AAV is fair.
    9. Nikola Vucevic, Celtics. (Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million)  His Boston tenure was a disaster. But he is big and skilled offensively, likely to find a credible deal somewhere.
    10. Jaxson Hayes, Lakers. (Projected contract: 3 years, $30 million) Hayes wants to return to the Lakers, but if he gets a significant offer—with more playing time—he would have to take it.
    11. Al Horford, Warriors. (Projected contract: 1 year, $6 million). Horford showed enough when healthy to keep his career going, and though he can look elsewhere, the consensus is that he will opt in for $6 million.
    12. Nick Richards, Bulls. (Projected contract: 2 years, $12 million). Richards is a serviceable big man and a taxpayer midlevel exception would suit him.
    13. Brook Lopez, Clippers. (Projected contract: 1 year, $9 million) Lopez can still chew up space defensively while not being a zero offensively, and providing a good locker room presence. Thus the Clippers probably should pick up his $9 million option, even if they decide to go young.