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Thunder vs Spurs schedule, predictions, and key matchups
The 2026 Western Conference Finals are set, and the matchup features the NBA’s two best regular-season teams. The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will face the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs in a series that many around the league expected could decide the eventual NBA champion.
Oklahoma City enters the series with a league-best 64-18 record and an unbeaten 8-0 playoff run after sweeping both the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. San Antonio arrives after eliminating the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games and finishing the regular season at 62-20 behind Victor Wembanyama’s dominant two-way play.
The series also marks the first matchup since the 1998 NBA Finals featuring two teams with at least 62 regular-season wins. Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who ESPN’s Shams Charania reported won his second straight NBA MVP award Sunday, leads Oklahoma City against Wembanyama and a young Spurs core that went 4-1 against the Thunder during the regular season.
Spurs star Wembanyama acknowledged the challenge ahead, saying, “We know it’s going to be a whole different series and totally other challenges.”
The best-of-seven series begins Monday night at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.
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San Antonio won the regular-season series 4-1, including double-digit victories on December 23 and December 25. Oklahoma City’s lone win came on January 13.
GettyOklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama
The series centers around the matchup between Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama, two finalists for the NBA MVP award.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points while shooting a career-best 55.3% from the field during the regular season. According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, he became the NBA’s first back-to-back MVP since Nikola Jokić in 2021 and 2022.
Thunder coach Mark Daigneault praised Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact after the Lakers series.
“Remarkable poise and maturity by him,” Daigneault said. “Impact takes on different faces and his impact was all four games.”
Wembanyama enters the conference finals after leading the Spurs past Minnesota while averaging dominant numbers on both ends of the floor throughout the postseason. The 22-year-old also became the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year.
The supporting casts could also shape the series.
San Antonio’s backcourt trio of Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper played a major role against Minnesota. Castle averaged efficient scoring while defending Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. Harper emerged as a key secondary creator off the bench.
For Oklahoma City, depth has become a defining strength. Ajay Mitchell stepped into a larger role during Jalen Williams’ absence, while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein controlled the interior against the Lakers.
The Athletic’s Dan Woike wrote that the Thunder “are a basketball machine built on adaptability.”
Most analysts expect a long and competitive series.
The Athletic’s Joel Lorenzi predicted “Thunder in 6,” while Dan Woike projected “Thunder in 7.” Law Murray also picked Oklahoma City in seven games.
Jared Weiss predicted “Spurs in 7,” citing San Antonio’s defensive versatility and Wembanyama’s presence around the rim.
Jon Krawczynski called the series “a treat,” adding, “These two teams do not like each other. They will tear each other limb from limb.”
The biggest question surrounding Oklahoma City is the status of forward Jalen Williams, who has missed significant time because of a wrist injury. Multiple analysts noted the Thunder may need him fully healthy to match San Antonio’s depth and perimeter pressure.
GettyOklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren
Several analysts identified Holmgren as a potential X-factor.
The Athletic’s Jared Weiss noted that Wembanyama largely ignored Holmgren on the perimeter during previous matchups, allowing San Antonio to protect the paint more effectively.
“Can Holmgren be a knockdown shooter and pull Wembanyama out of the paint?” Weiss wrote. “The Spurs will win if Wemby can camp by the rim and lose if he can’t.”
For San Antonio, Fox’s playoff experience and Harper’s scoring bursts could become equally important against Oklahoma City’s aggressive defense.
The series begins Monday with two of the NBA’s youngest and deepest teams battling for a trip to the NBA Finals.
Debayan Biswas is a sports writer covering the NBA, NFL and Golf for Heavy.com. He focuses on breaking news, trades, and player stories. His work has been featured by Athlon Sports and Pro Football and Sports Network, with republication across platforms including Yahoo Sports and Yardbarker. More about Debayan Biswas
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