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OKC Thunder
The OKC Thunder will get the most benefit after the LA Clippers succumbed to the Golden State Warriors in a do-or-die play-in match on Wednesday night.
With the Clippers’ loss, the Thunder will gain 1.5% chance at the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft lottery in May. This comes as part of the Paul George trade in 2019, which has already given the Thunder reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, among other young pieces.
To put it into perspective, a 1.5% chance was all the Dallas Mavericks needed to land the top pick in last year’s draft process, which has given them Rookie of the Year candidate Cooper Flagg.
The Clippers finished the regular season with the ninth seed in the Western Conference with a 42-40 record. However, their 126-121 loss to the Warriors, which saw the Clippers lead for most of the game, has ended their chance to advance to the playoffs, a scenario that would have put the Thunder outside the lottery range.
The pick also has a 1.7% chance of going No. 2, and a 1.9% chance of going No. 3 in the draft. There is also a 2.1% chance that the pick would go No. 4.
However, it is most likely to fall to No. 12 with a 86.1% chance of it happening. It also has an 8.6% chance of dropping to No. 13, and a 0.1% chance to go No. 14.
If the Warriors advance to the playoffs, the Thunder’s odds would slightly increase in a draft class that many pundits consider to be one of the most loaded in recent years.
The pick is the final piece in the George-Gilgeous-Alexander trade package for OKC.
Nevertheless, the Clippers still have a chance for a top-10 pick as they could take the spot of the Indiana Pacers, which holds a 14% chance at the top pick, if it were to fall between No. 5 to No. 9 because of the Ivica Zubac trade last February.
The lottery will happen on May 10, while the draft proper will be on June 23.
The Thunder has been the top seed in the Western Conference for three straight year. This year, they finished with 64 wins, following a triumphant 2025 campaign where they won their first-ever NBA title.
George has since been shipped out of the Clippers as he is now playing with the Philadelphia 76ers, which occupy the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference.
GettyThe Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns face off for a chance to face the top-seeded OKC Thunder in the playoffs.
As the top seed, the Thunder will still have to wait for the winner of Friday’s final West play-in game between the Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors.
The winner between Suns and the Warriors will occupy the eight seed, while the loser will be the ninth seed and will have a slim chance in the draft lottery.
The Suns lost to the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday, before the Warriors escaped with a win over the Clippers on Wednesday.
Phoenix has defeated the Thunder twice this season, while the Warriors have yet to take down the Thunder this year.
GettyThe OKC Thunder will get a full week off before the NBA playoffs.
The Thunder has seven full days for rest and preparation for the first round of the playoffs, which is scheduled to start on Sunday, April 19.
Meanwhile, the winner of the play-in game will only have two days of lead time before the playoffs.
Game 2 of the series will then be on Wednesday, April 22.
OKC will enter the first round as the heavy favorites. The team swept their last two first-round series.
Rob Andrew Lo Rob Andrew Lo is a writer at Heavy Sports and is covering the NBA. He has covered local, collegiate, professional and international sports in various sites. He was the sports editor of The Varsitarian, the official student publication of University of Santo Tomas, and a sports, entertainment, and lifestyle writer for Rappler. A Journalism graduate from the University of Santo Tomas, he has built his voice across both collegiate and international platforms, previously contributing NBA coverage to Fansided and Sportskeeda. More about Rob Andrew Lo
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