New York baseball takes center stage Friday night.
The Subway Series returns as the Yankees and Mets square off in the first meeting of the season between the crosstown rivals, with this edition being hosted at Citi Field.
The Bombers will send Cam Schlittler, the newly established American League Cy Young favorite, to the mound
Coming off their first series sweep of the season, the Mets will counter with Clay Holmes, who is pitching like an ace himself, although there’s reason to believe he’s due for a setback.
The right-hander owns an excellent 1.86 ERA through eight starts, but little suggests that’s fully sustainable.
Holmes’ 3.44 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests he’s gotten some good fortune thus far.
He’s still not striking out many batters (6.89 strikeouts per nine innings), and he hasn’t shaken his tendency to issue more free passes than he should (2.98 walks per nine innings).
Holmes has also had to work through some traffic against better lineups, which is exactly what he’ll be dealing with in Queens on Friday.
Against the Dodgers on April 15, Holmes allowed four hits, including a home run, plus a walk and a hit-by-pitch, yet somehow escaped by giving up just two runs across five innings.
He also allowed four hits and three free passes in five innings in his March 30 season debut against the Cardinals, who have surprisingly been one of the better-hitting teams in baseball this season.
The Yankees should provide another difficult test, especially for a pitcher whose early-season numbers look due for some regression.
Holmes has been impressive, but this high-wire act can’t last forever.
The play: Clay Holmes to allow more than 2.5 earned runs (+110, bet365 Sportsbook)
Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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