The PGA Tour heads to familiar confines for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, has been a mainstay on the varsity circuit’s calendar since 1946, making it the longest-running non-major tour event held at the same venue. This famous track underwent renovations three years ago, but they didn’t really change what works and what doesn’t at this historic venue.
It all starts with the driver.
While it’s not a long course, Colonial demands precision and pragmatism off the tee. Plenty of more modern courses allow bombers to just swing for the fences without much peril if they sacrifice accuracy for distance, but this course doesn’t adhere to that philosophy. You can’t be wayward at Colonial.
With a “Signature Event” on the horizon next week at the Memorial and the U.S. Open two weeks later, the field for Colonial does lack star power.
Ludvig Aberg is the betting favorite at +850, but this is his first trip to Colonial, a place where a debutante hasn’t won since Sergio Garcia did so in 2001. Nonetheless, the Swede is the only player at FanDuel Sportsbook listed under 20/1. Russell Henley (20/1), Justin Thomas (20/1), Rickie Fowler (25/1), and Robert MacIntyre (25/1) make up a very lukewarm top-five for this event.
Colonial’s recent history paints it as a happy hunting ground for long shots. Ben Griffin was 65/1 when he won the Tartan Jacket a year ago, while Davis Riley pulled a rabbit out of his hat in 2024 as a 300/1 roughie. The 2023 iteration of this tournament was won by Emiliano Grillo at 80/1.
Could we see another dark horse rise to the occasion in Fort Worth?
It’s easy to root for Gary Woodland these days, but the former U.S. Open champion also ticks a lot of boxes for success at Colonial.
This will be Woodland’s sixth trip to Colonial since 2020, and he’s fared quite well with three top-15 finishes, which include last year when he finished 11th.
It shouldn’t be a shock that Woodland has done solid work at Colonial, since his off-the-tee game is his bread and butter. Only 10 players are averaging more strokes gained off the tee than Woodland this season.
Another week, another shot for the 23-year-old out of Japan.
We backed Ryo Hisatsune at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, but he wasn’t able to keep up with the scoring, finishing T19 and 15 strokes behind the winner, Wyndham Clark, despite shooting 15-under par.
The conditions for this week’s tournament should be more up Hisatsune’s alley.
Not only has he proven to be a more-than-capable driver of the ball, but Histatsune has already contended for the Tartan Jacket in his young career. He finished T6 here last year.
This tournament has produced some out-of-nowhere winners in recent years, so we will take a dart on a logical long shot.
A few months ago, it looked like Lucas Glover was in dire straits. He missed four cuts in his first six starts of the year and then withdrew from the Valero Texas Open after one round.
Since then, the 46-year-old has proven he still has something left in the tank.
He is just a few weeks removed from a T14 at the Cadillac Championship and was on his way to another strong finish at a signature event before falling apart on Sunday at the Truist Championship.
Glover also has some strong course history at Colonial with four top-25 finishes, including a top-10, in his last five trips to Fort Worth.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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