Some years, the Kentucky Derby is straightforward to handicap.
You have a chalky favorite, like Justify in 2018, and you’re just trying to figure out the best horses to use underneath to add some value to your exactas and trifectas, knowing that there’s no point in trying to beat a juggernaut.
This is not one of those years.
Renegade was already pegged as a lukewarm favorite before last weekend’s post position draw, and the skeptics only grew louder when Mike Repole’s colt was drawn into the dreaded No. 1 spot, which hasn’t produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986.
No. 6 Commandment and No. 18 Further Ado were co-second favorites on the morning line, but both look like they could drift into the pack as trendy horses like No. 8 So Happy and No. 9 The Puma take money.
Other potentially trendy horses include No. 15 Emerging Market and No. 11 Incredibolt, who is being touted as this year’s “wiseguy horse.”
That’s already seven horses out of a field of 20 with plenty of support behind them, and I haven’t even mentioned a handful of others that are going to have plenty of backers by the time “My Old Kentucky Home” is being bugled out to the masses.
With so much potential value on the board, the 2026 Kentucky Derby is setting up to be one of those years where the winning exacta and trifecta combos hit for massive payouts.
So, whether you’re looking for a horse to add value to your ticket underneath one of the favorites, or looking to build out an exacta or trifecta from scratch, consider these four horses to help you on your way to a big score Saturday.
Chief Wallabee’s third-place finish in the Florida Derby against Commandment and The Puma is misleading.
While those two Derby contenders enjoyed relatively stress-free trips around Gulfstream Park, Chief Wallabee was in a nightmare. He was pinned to the rail, bounced between horses and then somehow put pressure on the 1-2 finishers, losing by a half-length.
Chief Wallabee seemed to be headed for trendy territory last week, but trainer Bill Mott has decided to add blinkers to his colt, which could keep money away, as history indicates horses adding blinkers for the first time at the Kentucky Derby tend to struggle.
We’ll look at that as a good thing, as it should keep the price in range on a horse that just showed it can hang with the cream of this crop, even on a tough day.
No horse out of Japan has ever won the Kentucky Derby, but I’m not going to let that keep me off Danon Bourbon.
On paper, everything checks out.
Danon Bourbon just had a record-breaking performance at the Fukuryu Stakes, has won all three of her career starts by a combined 18 1/2 lengths, and has looked the part in his workouts at Churchill Downs this week.
We’ll see where this number goes, but I’m hopeful we’ll be getting one of the classiest horses in the field at a great price because bettors are weary of putting money on Japanese contenders.
Not too much to think about here.
You’re going to get a terrific price on a $2.4 million purchase trained by Bob Baffert. That’s not a bad recipe for a horse that just needs to hit the board to add some serious value to your exotics.
The only true deep closer in this field, Golden Tempo, should be passing plenty of tired horses in what figures to be a race with plenty of pace.
We’ll have to monitor Golden Tempo’s status after it was revealed he was dealing with cracked heels, but as long as he gets the green light, this horse is perfectly poised to outrun his odds Saturday.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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