Sometimes, it’s best to follow the line no matter what the metrics might say.
The Hurricanes are renowned for their disruptive forechecking and shutdown defense play; they surrendered only 10 goals throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs.
But after 11 days of rest, Carolina was caught with its feet asleep in the opening sequences of the Eastern Conference Finals, forfeiting four goals in the first period to the Canadiens.
The ebbs and flows of the Stanley Cup Playoffs are mercurial, and you could say the Hurricanes were simply due for a gong show to begin with. In Game 2, oddsmakers are expecting Carolina to refocus and return to their boring brand of tightly structured hockey, hanging a goal total set as low as 5.5 with juice on the Over (-130 at DraftKings).
There’s something to be said for the way this young and sparky Canadiens team was able to convert against Carolina. They held the puck for significantly less time — especially at five-on-five play — yet still managed to muster more high-danger scoring chances.
They’re an opportunistic bunch, and according to MoneyPuck, all three of Montreal’s top-line forwards rank within the top 10 of expected goals in these playoffs: Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield.
If Game 1 proved anything other than Carolina’s groginess, it’s that Montreal’s secondary scoring is just as valuable. Slafkovsky scored twice to collect his third three-point night of the playoffs, yet it was Phillip Danault who made the strongest offensive impact, scoring the opening goal and assisting on the eventual game-winner. That’s aside from blocking four shots and delivering three hits.
In Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen’s case, we can chalk up the five goals on 21 shots to an off night exacerbated by mistakes in front of him. On the other hand, Andersen’s brilliant postseason was underlined by a .946 high-danger save percentage heading into this series, and Montreal’s transition-heavy attack buried three of those on him.
Montreal’s strong two-way play gave goalie Jakub Dobes a light day’s work as the Canadiens blocked more shots than the young Czech had saves. As good as Dobes has been in these playoffs, he’s beatable when and if the Canadiens suffer defensive breakdowns. We saw that on a grand display when the Canadiens’ poor gap control, weak backchecking, and defensive turnovers resulted in an 8-3 Game 6 loss to the Sabres last round.
Besides, the Hurricanes dominated with a 61.5 percent shot-share, and that’s bound to pay dividends sooner than later — especially on home ice Saturday night.
A concerning issue, however, is that 14 of Carolina’s 24 goals through the prior two series came from its first line. Carolina head coach Rod Brind’Amour openly called out his top players and noted they won’t be able to survive without offensive diversification. Expect an aggressive push from Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov, Taylor Hall, and Logan Stankoven early in Game 2.
The likes of Slafkovsky, Suzuki, Caufield and co. should match their efforts for another night of high upside in Raleigh.
THE PLAY: Over 5.5 goals (-130, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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