Carson Beck’s ambiguous persona is defining his draft stock, and oddsmakers are scrambling.
The Dolphins are the 3/1 favorite to select the Miami Hurricanes quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft at DraftKings, with the Steelers, Jets, and Cardinals priced right behind them.
Meanwhile, on Kalshi, one of the world’s leading prediction markets, Beck is projected to go to the Steelers, who traders are pricing in at 29 percent. The Jets trail at 23 percent, with volume on the market exceeding $20,000.
Beck’s chances to be the third quarterback taken off the board shot up to 52 percent on Thursday morning since opening at 34 percent on Kalshi, overtaking LSU signal caller Garrett Nussmeier as the market favorite on Wednesday.
NFL Network analyst Tom Pelissero said on Thursday morning that he “wouldn’t rule out the long-shot possibility [Beck] comes out late in the [first round].”
Beck is available for as low as 20/1 to be selected in the first round at DraftKings and bet365, all while FanDuel and BetMGM have him tagged at 50/1 and 100/1, respectively.
Beck, who is ESPN’s fourth-ranked quarterback in the draft, has drawn concerns from NFL personnel that he seems like a “villain” and “was a bit of a loner” in team circles. On the field, he is generally viewed as a “good backup” or “low-end starter.”
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dolphins | +300 |
| Steelers | +330 |
| Jets | +425 |
| Cardinals | +450 |
| Eagles | +850 |
| Rams | 15/1 |
| Texans | 15/1 |
Beck entered the transfer portal after an inconsistent final season at Georgia, despite once being viewed as a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft. His move to Miami helped revive his draft stock after leading the Hurricanes to the College Football National Championship.
Beck’s fifth college season made for 3,813 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, showcasing improved rhythm and control as a passer.
ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper reported that Beck offers desirable physical traits to the Jets and Steelers and that he could see his name called by one of those teams in the third or fourth round.
Miami has two first-round selections with the 11th and 30th overall pick. The Dolphins signed Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million contract in free agency last month, but could be looking to bolster their pipeline next to Quinn Ewers.
With Steelers starter Aaron Rodgers’ outlook for 2026 up in the air, Pittsburgh is in the market for a short- or long-term option under center. Their first-round selection will come at No. 21 overall.
Aside from the Jets’ two first-round picks, which are not expected to be used on a quarterback, they own the first selection of the second round.
Arizona, owners of the third-overall pick, won’t pick again until the second selection of the second round.
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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