Saudi Arabia pulled off one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history in its opening match against Argentina four years ago.
The Green Falcons will look for similar luck against Argentina’s neighbors and bitter rivals, Uruguay, on Monday in Miami.
Although nowhere near their 22/1 moneyline price from that famous day in 2022, Saudi Arabia is still a robust +650 underdog to upset Uruguay.
Uruguay is in a bit of a transition period. The ‘Golden Generation’ of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani is now in the rear-view mirror, and La Celeste‘s hopes now rest on the shoulders of Real Madrid captain Federico Valverde and his supporting cast.
Previous iterations of Uruguay had a recognizable formula. La Celeste were always strong at the back, especially in the middle of the defense, and they had a couple of sensational strikers with an inherent knack for scoring the big goal in the big moment.
That’s not how Marcelo Bielsa wants to ball.
An innovator who wants his teams to press all match long, Bielsa’s Uruguay will look completely different from the stoic squads that preceded them. They’ll be frenetic, aggressive, and happy to bomb forward after turning the ball over.
It’s the perfect antidote to Saudi Arabia, which will be hellbent on jamming up the middle of the pitch and forcing Uruguay to beat them out wide.
That won’t be an issue for Uruguay, as Valverde and Maxi Araujo are dynamic players on the flanks, and they’ll be happy to try and pick out Darwin Nunez in the middle of the box.
There also shouldn’t be too much of a threat from Saudi Arabia going forward, as the threat of Bielsa’s press will put them under pressure as soon as they get on the ball. That will lead to the Green Eagles playing low-percentage long-balls or risking getting pulled out of their defensive shape with a turnover.
Uruguay will run into problems with their high-octane approach eventually, but they’re likely to have a field day in their opener.
The Play: Uruguay team total over 2.5 goals (+230, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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