The Knicks head to Cleveland for Game 3 on Saturday with momentum and magic on their side.
The bookmakers, however, are going in the other direction.
There’s still plenty of time before tip-off, but the Knicks are 2.5-point underdogs across the betting market as of Friday afternoon, leaving plenty of fans and speculators scratching their heads.
After pulling a rabbit out of their hat in Game 1, the Knicks coasted to a 109-93 victory over the Cavs on Thursday to take a 2-0 series lead in the Eastern Conference finals.
The Knicks were trailing, 27-24, at the end of the first quarter, but they took over from there, outscoring the Cavs by 18 in the next two frames, putting the game out of reach and sending the MSG Faithful home to dream about a trip to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999.
It was the ninth straight win on the spin for the Knicks, and they’ve outscored the Cavs by 41 points since the third quarter of Game 1.
So, how is it that the market has landed on Cleveland as the favorite for Game 3?
There are likely a few reasons.
The most obvious is that the series is now shifting to Cleveland.
The rule of thumb is that home-court advantage is worth three points in the NBA, and a little more in the playoffs. Since the Knicks closed at -5.5 for Game 2, a simple venue adjustment would flip the line to make the Cavs a slight favorite for Saturday night.
Another reason why this line may hold at Cleveland -2.5 is that bettors tend to lean towards the team with its back against the wall in must-win situations, leading to bookmakers charging a “must-win” tax
We often see this in best-of-seven series when one side is down 2-0, or if a heavy favorite loses Game 1 at home. This phenomenon is not exclusive to basketball. It happens quite often in the Stanley Cup and MLB playoffs, too.
Whether you agree with the logic behind the price or not, it puts the Knicks in a rare situation. They’re up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series, and still get to get into Game 3 feeling a bit disrespected.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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