It’s been a strange season for the Vegas Golden Knights.
They stormed out of the gate, coasted through a sluggish winter, and still never seriously risked falling out of the Stanley Cup playoff picture thanks to a weak Pacific Division and underwhelming Western Conference.
The malaise was worrying enough to get the attention of general manager Kelly McCrimmon, and he responded by firing Bruce Cassidy and replacing him with John Tortorella with eight games left in the regular season.
The Knights went 7-0-1 down the stretch and have won eight of 12 games in the postseason, giving them a 15-4-1 record under Tortorella.
Cassidy’s dismissal wasn’t unwarranted — Vegas went 4-10-2 in his last 16 games in charge — but it was a little cruel.
The Knights were one of the league’s best 5-on-5 teams all season, but their goaltending was a mess. Vegas finished with the fifth-worst save percentage (.879) during the regular season, and it was even worse during the stretch that did cost Cassidy his job.
It may look like the Knights have clicked into gear under Tortorella, but the only remarkable difference is that Vegas is getting strong goaltending. Carter Hart owns a .915 save percentage and plus-4.2 Goals Saved Above Expected in 12 playoff starts.
Despite all the positive momentum, the bookmakers remain skeptical of the Golden Knights’ chances against the Colorado Avalanche.
On the surface, the wide odds for this series make sense. The Avs were the best team in the regular season, finished 26 points ahead of Vegas, and they have won eight of nine in the playoffs. They’re a steamroller. But they’re meeting their match in this series. They’re meeting an immovable object.
To beat the Avalanche, you need to stop the Avalanche. As the Minnesota Wild just found out, no team in the NHL can skate up and down the ice with Colorado and expect to come out on top.
That won’t be an issue for the Knights. The last thing Tortorella will want is for his club to get in a track meet with the Avs. A physical, high-IQ team, Vegas will look to turn every shift of this series into a rock fight and come out ahead. And they’ve got the personnel to pull it off. Starting with Jack Eichel.
While Mitch Marner leads the playoffs in scoring and is playing the most compelling hockey of his career, Eichel’s contributions are flying under the radar.
The former Boston University Terrier is right behind Marner with 15 points, and he’s playing nearly 23 minutes a night against the opposition’s top line. Eichel will likely get the Nathan MacKinnon assignment in this series, and he’s proven capable of handling it.
If you’re in agreement that Vegas’ defensive conscience — no team allowed fewer high-danger scoring chances during the regular season — makes them a good value play to pull the upset (+210, bet365), then you may as well grab a piece of Eichel to win the Conn Smythe at 25/1 (bet365) because there’s almost no way the Knights get out of this series without their No. 1 center leading the way.
The plays: Vegas series moneyline (+210) | Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe Trophy (25/1)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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