Morocco is a massive favorite over Haiti in a Group C clash at the World Cup on Wednesday evening.
It makes sense on every level. Not only is Morocco one of the best teams in the tournament and Haiti one of the worst, but the Atlas Lions still have plenty to play for, while Les Grenadiers are eliminated.
The odds tell us that this is a pretty straightforward match to project, but there’s more to this tilt than meets the eye.
You have to feel for Haiti. Les Grenadiers were drawn into a brutal group with Morocco, Brazil, and Scotland, and still gave it a real go.
While most long shots, especially those in tougher groups, opt to play a more conservative style of soccer, Haiti didn’t abandon its DNA. Sébastien Migné wants his side to attack, and that’s exactly what they’ve tried to do.
Les Grenadiers gave Scotland all it could handle and were unlucky to lose 1-0. Needing at least a point against Brazil to stay alive in the tournament, you could have forgiven Haiti for parking the bus, but they did the opposite. They deployed a high line against Selecao, but it backfired to the tune of a 3-0 loss.
With nothing left to lose, I expect an even more front-footed approach from Haiti against Morocco.
At the 2022 World Cup, Morocco was known as a classic counter-punching side. They defended well and took their chances in transition. This version of the Atlas Lions has a lot more to it than that. New manager Mohamed Ouahbi wants his team to play with more flair and aggression, and instead of sitting deep, Morocco is pressuring opponents higher up the pitch.
The result has been a 1-1 draw with Brazil and a 1-0 win over Scotland, but the eye test looks quite encouraging for Morocco. Haiti’s defense could be in trouble in this one, especially since Morocco will need to beat Brazil’s goal difference to win Group C.
That said, Morocco’s attacking mindset could leave it exposed on the counter, and that’s where Haiti has shown some serious promise in this tournament.
Les Grenadiers haven’t found the back of the net yet, but that’s mostly down to the lack of execution.
Morocco should be able to hang a crooked number on Haiti, but don’t be shocked if the underdogs contribute to the final score in this one.
The Play: Over 4.5 goals (+310, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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