It’s as if the floodgates are going to burst any moment between the Kings and Avalanche.
Colorado took another 2-1 victory — this time in overtime — in Game 2, and the series shifts to Los Angeles as the Kings look to fend off a 3-0 hole on Thursday.
Although the Avalanche are driving the play, this series has been dragged into the exact style that the Kings want: low-event hockey. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar have combined for just one point, and the Avalanche power play hasn’t scored at all.
That’s no surprise considering it was lackluster all season, but even at 5-on-5, the Avalanche have only outpaced the Kings 60-53 in chances. In the high-danger department, the Kings lead chances 10-9.
No, the Kings don’t have a reliable offense, and Artemi Panarin has scored the only two goals they’ve registered in these playoffs. Their top-five finish in expected goals against tells us that their elite defensive structure has been substantial enough to force coin-flip games.
Los Angeles scored the fewest goals of any team to qualify for the postseason. They only won 19 games in regulation and lost 19 times in overtime, an NHL single-season record.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Kings out-projected the Avalanche in expected goals 2.9 to 2.2 in Game 1 before the Avalanche pressed the gas to reflect a 3.2 to 0.9 advantage in Game 2.
Then there’s the goaltending, in which Anton Forsberg’s play has really closed the gap. There’s a floating perception that his more-grounded career numbers can only mean he is due for regression in this series.
Throughout the first two games, Forsberg’s play is burgeoning with a .941 save percentage and 3.1 goals saved above expected.
All four of the Avalanche’s goals have come on high-danger shots as Forsberg has held down the fort on the other 15 shots he’s faced on rush chances and point-blank looks.
Playoff success can almost directly be tied to goaltending, and in the context of a series, it’s more likely than not that a goaltender will stay in rhythm.
In series like this, when the “dominant” team isn’t cashing in on territorial control, it signals that the margin for error is thin — and one bad bounce, penalty, or hot goalie night can swing it.
That’s enough to back the pesky Kings to cut the deficit.
THE PLAY: Kings (+144, Kalshi)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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