The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have been on a collision course for the Western Conference finals since they faced off for the first time this season in the NBA Cup semifinals.
At the time, the Thunder looked like they could challenge the NBA wins record and the Spurs were hoping Victor Wembanyama would return from a back injury to give them at least 20 minutes off the bench.
We’ve come a long way since that meeting.
The Spurs won that game and tacked on three more wins over the season, but they haven’t played the Thunder since February.
Sportsbooks seem to be throwing out the regular season record for Game 1. The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites in the series opener, with the Over/Under sitting at 221.5 total points.
This series should turn out to be worth all the hype it has received this season.
The Thunder have thoroughly steamrolled their competition all season, so the fact that they went 8-0 through two rounds of the playoffs barely made it to the B-block on sports shows.
Dominance can be boring to watch and the Thunder have hardly needed to sweat in most of their games so far, but the Spurs are one of two teams left in the postseason that can actually match their level of play.
The Spurs have lost three games in the playoffs and Victor Wembanyama left two of those games early — once for a concussion and once for an ejection.
The Thunder can certainly try slamming Wembanyama’s head into the ground or stepping in front of an errant elbow, but if that doesn’t work, they’ll need to solve the equation he presents to every opponent.
With Wembanyama on the court during the playoffs, the Spurs have a 96.4 offensive rating and teams have shot 35.1 percent on shots he has defended. Trying to score with him on the floor is like playing basketball with one arm tied behind your back.
As good as the Thunder offense has been this postseason, they haven’t been uncomfortable in a game at all. That will change in this series with Wemby on the floor roaming in the paint and taking away mid-range jumpers and rim attempts. His defensive presence will allow his teammates to stay close to Thunder shooters and contest 3-point attempts as well.
The Spurs are more than capable of covering this 6.5-point spread and I think they are live for an upset.
I’ll back them as +6.5 underdogs.
The Pick: Spurs +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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