It’s been a roller coaster, but the Montreal Canadiens are still alive in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Habs have played the maximum number of games, 14, to get to this point, and their first two series were polar opposites, but they got through them to earn a crack at the Carolina Hurricanes with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line.
The oddsmakers have tagged the Hurricanes as -205 favorites to take Game 1, and they’re -275 to win the series.
While the Habs have gone the distance in their first two series, the Hurricanes have done the opposite.
Carolina swept Ottawa in Round 1 and then did the same to Philadelphia a week later. The Hurricanes haven’t played a game since May 9.
You have to try hard to poke holes in the work the Canes did in the first two rounds, but there is some context that needs to be considered when weighing the hefty price you’d have to pay to back Carolina in Game 1.
While the Canes did tilt the ice against the Senators and Flyers, they also got out-of-this-world goaltending from Frederik Andersen.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Hurricanes have conceded 10 goals on 23.7 xG through eight games, meaning Andersen has accounted for nearly 14 goals saved above expected.
That number, along with his .950 save percentage, are likely unsustainable.
Another regression signal is that Carolina is 4-0 in one-goal games and 3-0 in overtime. They’ve played a lot of tight games, but Andersen’s been able to guide them through without a loss.
It’s also worth noting that Carolina has only scored 24 goals through eight games. They’ve only scored more than three goals twice this postseason, and they were aided by a pair of empty-netters in one of those contests. They’ll likely need to find a way to score more against Montreal.
That brings us to the rust factor.
Getting a long break in the middle of the playoffs could pay off for the Canes in the long run, but it’s hard to see a 12-day break as a positive for a team and a goaltender that were rolling before the hiatus.
It may sound nitpicky, but that’s what you have to do when you’re dealing with a -205 favorite in a Stanley Cup playoff game.
While Carolina has been able to get games on its terms the entire postseason, the Canadiens have shown they can win in a variety of ways, and in a lot of different environments.
The Habs are good value to get the jump on the Canes on Thursday night.
The Play: Canadiens moneyline (+170, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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