The Western Conference finals aren’t over, but after Game 5, the Thunder look like they have enough of an experience edge over the Spurs to come out ahead.
Whether that happens in Game 6 or Game 7 remains to be seen, but the Spurs don’t look like they will be able to win back-to-back games against the champs. That offers bettors an opportunity to look ahead and try to pinpoint some value in the NBA Finals.
The Knicks are sitting at home waiting to see which city they will fly to for Game 1 of the championship round after a historic 11-game run. If the Thunder end up clinching, they would be -275 favorites in the series over the Knicks, who are +225 in that potential pairing at bet365.
The Post’s Erich Richter already made a great case for why the Knicks can win either series, but the books are letting bettors take it a step further even before the Conference finals end.
Oddsmakers are offering lines for Game 1 and series double and Knicks to win Game 1, and the series is +475. It’s an intriguing bet to consider for a number of reasons.
The Knicks’ historic barrage of their opponents has been well documented, and the numbers are so outrageous that some observers have become skeptical of New York’s opponents. The Knicks aren’t getting lucky; the numbers they’ve put up are consistent across every series.
Their offense is the best among all playoff teams, and the defense is No. 1 as well, because the two things are tied together. They rank third in points off turnovers, first in fast break points, and first in second chance points — three areas that make life easier for an offense.
In the half-court, the Knicks have found ways to run the offense through any one of their starters, especially Karl-Anthony Towns and Brunson. The ball and body movement make them tough to guard because defenses have to pay attention to more than just the ball handler. That should allow the Knicks to maintain some of their juice in the half-court and score against a ferocious Thunder defense.
The spot here is important, too. The Knicks know they’ll be the underdog in either series, but especially against a team looking to win back-to-back NBA titles. While they are clearly confident, they know that winning Game 1 is crucial for the road team if they hope to get the series upset.
Teams that win Game 1 of the Finals have won the series 69 percent of the time, and the Knicks already saw how coming out flat to open the Cavaliers series nearly did them in. OKC also has a history of dropping Game 1s at home in big playoff moments.
Last season, they lost Game 1 to the Nuggets in Round 2 and Game 1 of the Finals to the Pacers. This year it was Game 1 of the Conference finals against the Spurs.
Again, the Thunder still need to win their current series, and that could easily go the full seven games, a scenario that would further benefit the Knicks. But if you think the Knicks have a shot at being champions for the first time in 53 years, this is a bet you should consider making.
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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