If the best-of-seven series between the Sabres and Canadiens holds to form, we should be in for a treat.
The two are both young, offensively-charged teams, and neither is a stranger to the 6-5 type of game.
There should be plenty of goals in this series, and it will be played out in front of two rabid fanbases, setting us up for a classic.
The best news? The betting market has tagged this series as a pick’em.
Stylistic matchups matter quite a bit when you’re handicapping a best-of-seven in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Measuring strengths and weaknesses, and trying to figure out which team can take advantage, is the name of the game.
But this series is a bit of an outlier because we are dealing with two very similar teams, who play a similar style.
They’re fast, skilled and open to playing with reckless abandon, knowing that they can make up for defensive misgivings with their offensive firepower.
And they’re both loaded with playmakers all over the ice.
The Sabres, led by Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Josh Norris and Josh Doan up front, and Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram on the backend, want to go north all night.
They get on the puck and immediately try to create something off the rush.
The Habs, led by Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson and Juraj Slafkovsky, have a bit more east-west in their game, but their DNA is just like Buffalo’s. They’re thinking offense at all times.
Even the goaltending battle feels like a wash, or at least close to it.
Jakub Dobes was a monster for the Canadiens against the Lightning, but he’s a 24-year-old playing in Round 2 for the first time in his career.
Alex Lyon got the nod midway through Buffalo’s six-game victory over Boston, but he’s a career journeyman in the midst of a hot streak.
On paper, the nod probably goes to Dobes, but it’s impossible to be sure that one of these goalies is a sure thing to outplay the other.
With toss-ups, washouts and coin flips all over the tale of the tape, you need to go a little deeper to find an advantage, and where I’ve landed is on Montreal’s versatility and resilience. Both were on display against Tampa Bay.
The Habs were decided underdogs against the Bolts, and were outplayed for large parts of the series, but they never broke down. That entire series, which went the distance, was played on a knife-edge, and Montreal was able to hang around when it needed to, and came up big in critical moments.
And perhaps the most overlooked part of Montreal’s victory over the Lightning was that they got the job done without much help from its star players.
Cole Caufield scored just once, so did Nick Suzuki and Ivan Demidov. Juraj Slafkovsky had three goals, but they all came in the same game.
If Montreal upset Tampa Bay without its stars at their best, I imagine the Canadiens will get the job done against the Sabres.
The Play: Canadiens to win the series (-106, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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