The Pittsburgh Penguins look like a team reborn.
After digging themselves into a 0-3 hole in their best-of-7 against the Philadelphia Flyers, the Penguins have won two games on the spin, and they’ve done it in impressive fashion.
The Penguins have turned themselves into a sturdy defensive outfit with their backs against the wall, holding the Flyers to just four goals and 3.5 expected goals at 5-on-5 in the last two contests.
Will Pittsburgh be able to replicate that form and force a Game 7?
It’s no surprise that the odds for Game 6 are razor-tight. The Flyers are a nominal -122 favorite at DraftKings, but the bookies are essentially telling you to flip a coin.
The case for the Penguins is pretty straightforward. Pittsburgh, which was the favorite before the series started, now has momentum on its side after making some adjustments after Game 3. The Pens did a good job unlocking the Flyers in Game 4, producing 12 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, but that was really the first time Pittsburgh had success against Rick Tocchet’s 1-1-3 trap.
As for the Flyers, they’ve played the same way for most of this series, save for Game 4. Philadelphia has focused on suppressing scoring chances rather than pushing the pace, and that’s put it in a position to end this series at home.
But Philadelphia’s biggest edge in this series remains in the blue paint. Arturs Silovs has been admirable since replacing Stuart Skinner, but it’s hard to trust the Latvian netminder to maintain that level, especially after a disastrous regular season that saw the Latvian post a -11.9 Goals Saved Above Expected.
In a game that is projected to be this tight, any mistake or soft goal could prove a back-breaker. With Silovs in goal, the Penguins are the more likely of these two teams to make that critical error.
The play: Flyers moneyline (-122, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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