Much like its big brother on Saturday, Friday’s Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs projects to be wide open.
Mike Repole’s Zany, which drew into the No. 2 spot, is the lukewarm favorite at 4-1, but the oddsmakers don’t see much of a difference between her and the chasing pack.
There were three other horses, No. 5 Meaning (5-1), No. 1 Explora (6-1), and No. 11 Percy’s Bar (6-1), right behind Zany on the morning line, and three more, No. 4 Counting Stars (8-1), No. 10 Prom Queen (8-1), and No. 9 Always A Runner (10-1), right behind that trio.
With half the field between 4-1 and 10-1, you could make a case for this race to go in a million different directions.
That should create some great betting opportunities on Friday.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Explora | 6-1 |
| 2 | Zany | 4-1 |
| 3 | Search Party | 30-1 |
| 4 | Counting Stars | 8-1 |
| 5 | Meaning | 5-1 |
| 6 | My Miss Mo | SCR |
| 7 | Dazzling Dame | 30-1 |
| 8 | Bottle of Rouge | SCR |
| 9 | Always A Runner | 10-1 |
| 10 | Prom Queen | 8-1 |
| 11 | Percy’s Bar | 6-1 |
| 12 | Bella Ballerina | SCR |
| 13 | Pashmina | 30-1 |
| 14 | Brooklyn Blonde | 30-1 |
| 15 | Lovely Grey | 30-1 |
| 16 | Nycon | 50-1 |
| 17 | Resist | 30-1 |
Given how this race sets up, it makes a lot of sense to fade Zany if Mike Repole’s filly holds as the favorite.
It’s nothing against the horse or its connections, but all about the situation. Let’s use Zany, who is 4-1 on the morning line, and No. 10 Prom Queen (8-1), for example.
In a vacuum, Zany is the better horse on paper. But when you throw in all the unique circumstances of the Kentucky Oaks, the distance, the strength of the field, and the inherent unpredictability of a race with this many entrants, the playing field naturally gets leveled.
When you consider all of that, and you’re staring down one horse at 4-1 and another really strong contender at 8-1, you’re going to give a lot of consideration to the chunkier price. You can apply this logic to about a half-dozen horses in this field.
Every once in a while, a horse will capture the betting public’s imagination, and that seems to be happening with Lovely Grey.
A 30-1 also-eligible on the morning line, Lovely Grey got into the field when Bottle of Rouge scratched. It didn’t take long for money to pour in on Portnoy’s filly.
By midday Thursday, the updated odds had Lovely Grey tracking at 6-1, which would make her one of the favorites.
With Lovely Grey taking so much of the betting support, that means other horses will fly under the radar, and that could lead to some tempting prices on horses with winning upside.
Brad Cox’s Prom Queen could be peaking at the exact right time.
After starting her career with a runner-up at Gulfstream Park in January, Prom Queen has stepped forward in her past two outings, both wins, culminating in an eight-length victory at the Gulfstream Park Oaks at the end of March.
That race also saw Prom Queen post her best speed figures, and another improvement there could see this filly establish herself as the horse to beat.
Critically, it seems that Prom Queen’s price could hold, or even lengthen, as we get to post time.
Chad Brown’s Always A Runner hasn’t put a foot wrong in her career yet, winning both races she’s ever entered.
Although her lack of experience may be a knock, every other horse in this field has competed in at least three races, and a dozen have at least four under their belt, it doesn’t change the fact that this may be one of the classiest horses in the field.
Unlike Always A Runner, who seems to be taking money, it seems like the opposite is happening with Bob Baffert’s Explora.
A tough draw on the inside post will be tough to overcome, but there’s a reason this horse was the chalk in her seven career starts before Friday.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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