The pendulum swings in a best-of-seven series in the Stanley Cup playoffs, especially a tight one, are profound.
Ahead of Game 4, it seemed like everybody was backing the Montreal Canadiens to get to the Eastern Conference finals over the Buffalo Sabres.
But after Buffalo’s win Tuesday night, the narrative has shifted back to this series, and Thursday’s Game 5, being a coin flip.
The oddsmakers are in agreement there.
There wasn’t too much to glean from Buffalo’s win in Game 4.
The Sabres caught a massive break with a one-in-a-million goal, and they held firm on the penalty kill, swatting aside six of seven power plays en route to a 3-2 win.
It was a win, but not one that would enstill you with much confidence moving forward.
The one thing that should stand out was the play of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who made his first start since Game 2 of Round 1.
The Sabres needed one of their goaltenders to stabilize things, and Luukkonen did just that with a professional effort.
He’ll get the nod opposite Jakub Dobes on Thursday evening in Western New York.
Dobes still gets the edge on recent form, but if Luukkonen has found his regular-season form, this series, which was already tight, will get even tighter.
It’s very rare that you get a series that shakes out in this fashion.
The odds, numbers and intangibles are all pretty close to a wash, and this is the first time that either one of these young cores has advanced this far in the postseason.
Given how important Game 5 is in a 2-2 series, I expect this to be a nervy, scrappy contest.
We saw the Canadiens really batten down the hatches in the business end of their series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, and I expect a similar scenario Thursday night.
That should lead to a tight start from both teams, as neither side will want to make the mistake that hands their opponent the pivotal first goal in this crucial contest.
At close to 4/1, I like the value on the first period to scoreless, as we should see both teams putting an emphasis on structure and discipline.
The Play: 1P Under 0.5 goals (+390, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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